Casino City's Week 16 NFL Circa Million IV Pro Football Contest Picks

Well, it was not the best week for the Casino City team and we have done something we hoped to avoid, and that is drop below .500 in our picks this season. The good news? We have three more weeks to salvage the NFL season and finish with a respectable record. Unfortunately, our team is far from finishing in the money in this contest; however, we have a personal goal that is still within reach. With three weeks left, we are aiming to get above the magic 52.4% hit-rate in order to show a profit.

Let’s get down to business and get into our picks that will hopefully right the ship.

#CircaSportsMillion IV ????
Week 16 Contest Point Spreads

?? PDF: https://t.co/GVcxIE5NTG pic.twitter.com/3plPE6KUB0
— Circa Sports (@CircaSports) December 22, 2022

Detroit -2.5 over Carolina
After Detroit started the year with a 1-6 record, many fans just forgot about the Lions and placed them in their usual “no chance of making playoffs” category. Well, those fans better think fast because out of nowhere, the Lions have rattled off six wins in the last seven games to get back to 7-7.

Never thought we would write that Detroit is one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now, but it is true. The offense for Detroit is rolling and quarterback Jared Goff is in a groove.

The Panthers, sitting at 5-9, are one loss away from turning into a team that is focusing on its first round draft pick. Carolina doesn’t really have a solid identity either, so the surging Lions have a great opportunity to continue their streak and get over .500.

Buffalo -8.5 over Chicago
The theme for Saturday’s game at Soldier Field as the Bears host the Bills is low. With temperatures expected to feel like -20F with the windchill, it’s likely that the total will also stay low as the over/under is set at around 40 points depending on your betting venue. Low is exactly where Buffalo shines as it is 7-0 to the under on the road this season.

That being said there’s a lot on the line for the Bills this weekend, so don’t expect them to settle for field goals. While Buffalo (11-3 overall) already clinched a spot in the playoffs, a victory will not only wrap up the AFC East title, but it will also allow it to keep pace with the Kansas City Chiefs (also 11-3) for the top seed in the conference, which brings along with it the much-coveted first round bye in the playoffs. The Bills; however, hold the tie breaker as a result of their 24-20 victory in Kansas City earlier this year, and if they face each other again Buffalo wants to be the home team this time around.

Chicago on the other hand is the exact opposite as it comes into the game at 3-11 overall and riding a seven-game losing streak. With a loss this weekend, the Bears will tie the franchise’s longest losing streak.

It’s going to be a historic weekend for both the Bills and Bears, but only one will be positive. Take Buffalo!

WE’RE IN.#BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/BHh6YOiKZw
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) December 18, 2022

Washington +7 over San Francisco

Part of our demise last week was when we recommended a play on Washington (-4) over the NY Giants, and the Commanders lost outright, thanks to three turnovers. But when it comes to betting the NFL you need to have a short memory, so with that in mind we'll take the points here this week against a red-hot San Francisco team that's won seven in a row.

The Niners are 5-1 ATS as a home favorite this season. Dating back the last three regular seasons though they are just 2-7-1 against the spread when laying a touchdown or more on their home field as head coach Kyle Shanahan tends to play it conservative when his team builds a lead (anyone remember who was the Falcons' offensive coordinator when they blew the 28-3 lead to New England in the Super Bowl?).

This is the best defense 49er back-up QB Brock Purdy has faced during his impressive three-game ride since taking over for Jimmy G and despite not covering in its last two games, both against the G-Men, Washington is still on a 6-2-1 run at the betting window. At most sportsbooks this line has already trickled down to 6.5, so we’re getting some value catching the full seven points.

Chase Young will be active vs. the 49ers pic.twitter.com/aosChsap17
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) December 22, 2022

Dallas -6 over Philadelphia
One of the bigger headlines this week comes out of Philadelphia. QB Jalen Hurts is going to miss this week with a shoulder injury and backup Gardner Minshew will lead the offense for the Eagles.

Minshew has had varied in his career (8-14 as a starter), but will face a tough test Saturday evening against the Cowboys defense led by Micah Parsons. If the Eagles don’t focus on Parsons, then he may be in the backfield on every play.

Let’s also talk about how the Dallas offense has been on fire as of late. In the last five games, the team’s lowest point total is 28. The Cowboys are also coming off a brutal OT loss, which ended with a pick six from Jacksonville.

With a sour taste in its mouth and an opportunity to cut the division lead to two games with two weeks remaining, this is the last chance for Dallas to make a push for the top NFC spot.

Miami -4 over Green Bay
What a battle the Miami Dolphins had last week with both the Buffalo Bills and the weather conditions. The snow in the second half really did play a factor and Miami fell on a last second FG from Buffalo.

The Dolphins are in the final Wild Card playoff spot, so this is a massive game for them to win before they head next week to New England, which is also fighting to sneak back into a playoff spot.
Miami has dropped three straight games, all of which were on the road. Now Miami returns home against a Packers team that needs a win to try to stay in the playoff conversation.

Can Aaron Rodgers and the offense keep up with the explosive plays that Miami is capable of? We are not convinced. Don’t be surprised to see a high scoring affair in this one with the Dolphins being just too much for the Packers.

??Aqua endzones are ?? at @HardRockStadium this Sunday!?? #FinsUp x #GBvsMIA pic.twitter.com/h7oA90uh1i
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) December 22, 2022

Week 15 Results: 1-3-1
Season Record: 35-36-2