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Casino City's Week 1 NFL Circa Million V 2023 Pro Football Contest Picks

8 September 2023

Last night, the NFL season officially kicked off as the Detroit Lions stormed into Arrowhead Stadium and defeated the defending champs, the Kansas City Chiefs, 21-20. With football being back, that means the Circa Million V is back and the Casino City team will again be following along all season with our own picks to see how well we would fare if we were actually in the contest. Last year, our team finished outside of the money with a 44-41-3 record, so hopefully we can bring that win number up.

Here are the rules:
- $1,000 to enter, five entries per person max
- Make five NFL picks against the spread each week
- Get one point for each correct selection and one-half point for each push
- $6 million Guaranteed in total prizes
- $1 million first place prize and the coveted blue jacket
- $3.65 million in cash prizes for places 2 – 100
- $300,000 per “Quarter” in prizes awarded every 4-5 weeks
- $100,000 last place booby prize / $50,000 second to last place booby prize
- No Rake. Any extra fees go into the quarter and full-season prizes

Let’s begin the season on a high note:

Atlanta -3.5 over Carolina
Youth. That is the theme in this matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers. The No. 1 overall pick in last year’s draft, Bryce Young, will be the starting QB for the Panthers.

In their debut, QBs who were the first overall pick tend to struggle in the opener. Since 2003, those QBs are a brutal 1-13 against the spread in their debut and we see this figure moving to 1-14. Young didn’t show a ton in the preseason, but two of his weapons, Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark Jr. were both absent from practice on Thursday and are questionable.

Flip to the other side and you have young guns on the Falcons, as well. Second-year QB Desmond Ridder played four games last season and wide receiver Drake London was also part of that Falcons’ draft class. Tight end Kyle Pitts, who had massive expectations entering the league in 2021, has been a disappointment thus far but many around the team still have high hopes for him.

The key addition to this offense is the No. 8 pick in this year’s draft, Bijan Robinson, running back out of Texas. He is a tough guy to bring down solo and he knows how to make guys miss.

Having a productive running attack will take a lot of pressure off the other young guys on the offensive side of the ball.

Jaguars -4.5 over Indianapolis
When the Indianapolis Colts drafted QB Anthony Richardson with the fourth pick in the draft, fans were excited with the playmaking ability that he brings to the team. That positivity went out the window a few weeks ago though when Jonathan Taylor requested a trade. The Colts still haven’t been able to find a deal to their liking, and Taylor remains on the PUP list so he won’t play in the first four games.

If Taylor were playing, it would give Richardson a little bit of a safety net but now the entire weight of the offense falls on the rookie from Florida.

Looking at Jacksonville, there is really nothing but good things to look at currently. The Jaguars are getting Travis Etienne Jr. back from injury after he missed all of his rookie season. The team also picked up Calvin Ridley after he was suspended last year for violating the sports betting policy.

Let’s look at someone who actually played last year though. QB Trevor Lawrence really found a groove toward the end of the season. The Jags ripped off six wins in the last seven regular season games and won a playoff game before losing a one-score game to the eventual champions, the Kansas City Chiefs.

There was a lot of good things to take away and build on from the end of last year and don’t be surprised if Jacksonville takes control of that AFC South division.

Washington -7 over Arizona
There are clean slates and there are “clean slates.” Washington, which finished last season at 8-8-1, opens the season at home on Sunday with what everyone in the organization feels is a new lease on life.

Gone are the old nickname, former owner, and hopefully the carousel of quarterbacks. In their places, the Commanders, owned by Josh Harris, are going to take the field led by second-year quarterback Sam Howell, who only appeared in one game last year as a rookie. Then you add in new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, wide receivers Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson to go along with running backs Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson and you have a recipe for optimism, especially after finishing the preseason 2-1.

Then there’s the Cardinals, who one would think would want to improve on last year’s 4-13 record, but in fact it appears the only slate they want to wipe out, is in the win column. Yes, that’s right, Arizona is in full “Crash for Caleb” mode as in the current USC quarterback Caleb Williams, who is the projected top draft pick should he decide to leave college early after this season. Not only did Arizona get rid of any of its good players over the summer, but now it enters this weekend not even knowing who will play quarterback in place of starter Kyler Murray, who is on the PUP list. Not exactly an ideal situation for rookie head coach Jonathan Gannon.

We’re not saying that Washington will be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the year, but if it’s ever going to put its past behind them, it starts by taking “command” of this weaponless bird.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 over Miami
When you look at the Miami Dolphins, your first thought is to get the ball to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and let them make plays with their speed. Defenders often know that is the gameplan but because of how quick those two are, it is still difficult to prevent.

The issue lies with the QB situation. Tua Tagovailoa endured the concussion issue last year where he shouldn’t have played but ended up in the game and getting hurt again. His health is always a question mark, but even when he isn’t on the injury report, his arm has shown signs of weakness as he misses his receivers by several yards.

Someone who doesn’t have a question about arm strength is Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert who signed a five-year, $265 million extension over a month ago.

The offense for LA was a tough one to contain when everyone was healthy and you are basically getting the exact same weapons for this year.

Austin Ekeler, who is able to do damage both on the ground and through the air, comes out of the backfield and the top receivers, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer, were all present a year ago with Allen missing some time due to injury.

With an offense that is dangerous when all on the field and one that knows each other very well, look for the Chargers to come out slinging the ball all over the field come Sunday afternoon.

Seattle -5.5 over Los Angeles Rams
They say, “age isn’t how old you are, but how old you feel,” and that in a nutshell sums up what’s going on with these two franchises. The Seahawks, who finished last season with a playoff loss after going 9-8 in the regular season, will again, be adding to its energy from the “12th man” home crowd this weekend as it hosts the Rams in an NFC West showdown.

Pete Carroll, who at 71 years old is back on the sidelines for his 17th overall season as a head coach and 14th for Seattle, sets the tone for team with his enthusiasm and that’s exactly why the sky’s the limit for these Seahawks. The reigning NFL Comeback Player of the Year quarterback Geno Smith, who finished last with 30 touchdowns, will lead the way again for the offense, which added new weapons to its arsenal. Rookie Jaxon Sith-Njigba from The Ohio State will join wide receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to form one of the most explosive offenses in the league. This to go along with a backfield of Kenneth Walker III and rookie Zach Charbonnet from UCLA, and it’s easy to see how this offense is going to be fun to watch.

One would think at 37 years old Los Angeles’ head coach Sean McVay would be able to match Carroll’s vigor, especially since he’s only entering his seventh season as a head coach, but that’s not the case. In fact, McVay has already contemplated retiring from coaching twice to go join the broadcast booth. It’s no wonder that these Rams, who are two years removed from winning the Super Bowl, went 5-12 and 1-7 on the road last season, given all these mixed signals. Then you add in the recent comments from Kelly Stafford, wife of Los Angeles’ quarterback Matthew Stafford, that at 35 years old he’s having a hard time getting on the same page as his younger teammates, plus wide receiver Cooper Kupp going to see a specialist for his hamstring, well, it’s not a good recipe for positive gains.

As in everything in life, it starts from the top, and it’s clear that the Seahawks led by this old bird are going to fly circles around these young Rams.
Casino City's Week 1 NFL Circa Million V 2023 Pro Football Contest Picks is republished from Online.CasinoCity.com.
Dan Ippolito

As Casino City's associate editor, Dan produces and edits all of our weekly newsletters, and writes about the gaming industry for our websites and the GPWA Times Magazine. Dan graduated from Marist College in 2017 with a degree in Communications and a concentration in Sports. Email him at daniel@casinocity.com, or follow him at @casinocity_dan on Twitter.
Dan Ippolito
As Casino City's associate editor, Dan produces and edits all of our weekly newsletters, and writes about the gaming industry for our websites and the GPWA Times Magazine. Dan graduated from Marist College in 2017 with a degree in Communications and a concentration in Sports. Email him at daniel@casinocity.com, or follow him at @casinocity_dan on Twitter.