Ask the Slot Expert: Revisiting my NSU EV tables

This week I want to republish two EV charts with additional columns. I added two additional columns for each hold option. The extra columns make it easier to see how the different ending hands add up to the EV for the hold option. The two extra columns are the probability of hitting the ending hand and how much the hand contributes to the total EV of the hold option.

In this column, I looked at why the strategy charts say to give up a 3-of-a-kind in favor of a 4-card straight flush when your hand has one deuce. I don't like giving up a sure thing, so I wanted to see the details of how the EVs were calculated.

A tenth of the time you get the straight flush you were hoping for and that's responsible for a little over half of the EV for going for the straight flush. You could get 5-of-a-kind if you hold the 3-of-a-kind, but it's such a long shot that it contributes little to the total EV.

In this column, I looked at why holding a 3-card straight flush beats a pair when you don't have any deuces. You would hold the pair if your straight flush had a gap. Why does an outside straight flush beat the pair?

Similar to the first chart, the straight flush comes through again and provides the lion's share of the EV.

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