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John Robison Gaming Guru  Ask the Slot Expert: Understanding why some video poker players don't follow the strategy29 November 2023
By John Robison In my column a few weeks ago, I wrote about advising my cousin that she probably shouldn't hold a suited Ace-10 when playing video poker. There may be a paytable for which the mathematically derived strategy says to hold the combo, but I've never come across one. I came across a similar, but completely different, situation playing NSU yesterday. My choices for the hand I was dealt were suited King-Queen or unsuited King-Queen-10-9, an inside straight. Somewhat surprisingly, a suited King-Queen falls pretty low on the list of combos to hold in a hand with no deuces. Suited King-Queen (and any two-card royal--King high) is, in fact, just above tossing the whole hand. I say its ranking in the strategy is surprising because, coming in the Jacks or Better world, a suited King-Queen is not a bad hand. It falls in about the middle of the strategy rankings. The reason it's a meh hand in NSU and a so-so hand in Jacks or Better is explained in the latter paytable family's name. A pair of Jacks or better is a paying hand. Not so in NSU. Giving up my (long) shot at a royal by also holding the 10 and 9 reminded me of something I heard in a How to Play Video Poker video once. The presenter showed a hand and recommended holding the two-card royal. "We're here to hit the royal, right?" he said. It wasn't the correct play in terms of expected value, but I think I see what he and my cousin were thinking. If I hold the partial royal and get it, I have a story to tell. Furthermore, if you're a casual player who plays a few hours a day for a few days a year, it doesn't really matter much what non-strategy you choose to follow. The luck of the draw has a greater effect on your results than your skill. Another hand I was dealt was one that a casual player might play differently from the mathematical strategy. I was dealt a deuce and with the other cards I could have held either 3-of-a-kind or a 4-card double inside straight flush. Ooh, I hate having to throw away paying combos, but in an NSU hand with one deuce, any 4-card straight flush beats holding 3-of-a-kind. I held the partial straight flush and got bupkis. If I were a casual player, though, I could see why I might hold the 3-of-a-kind. If I wanted to brag to my friends about beating the machine, a sure thing might be more attractive than a chance at a larger payout. I may want to maximize my chances of winning something -- anything -- on a hand rather than maximizing my long-term return. This thinking echoes what I wrote about in this column. Statistical decision making in video poker assumes that you will be in the game for the long run. I'm in it for the long run, so I always hold the combination of cards with the highest expected value. To paraphrase and expand upon something Bob Dancer says, today's results don't matter. They're mainly the result of luck. Only the long-term result matters. It's mainly the result of skill. If you're a casual player, I can see why you might hold a different set of cards than I would. If you would like to see more non-smoking areas on slot floors in Las Vegas, please sign my petition on change.org. Ask the Slot Expert: A slot machine design puzzle22 November 2023
I was never asked to solve a puzzle during a job interview, fortunately. According to William Poundstone in How Would You Move Mount Fuji?: Microsoft's Cult of the Puzzle -- How the World's Smartest Companies Select the Most Creative Thinkers (There should be a limit on the number of sub-titles in a book's ... (read more)
Ask the Slot Expert: Statistical Decision Making at video poker and game shows15 November 2023
Statistical Decision Making is the technique of choosing the option that has the highest expected value (EV) when you have to make a decision. I learned the technique in the Operations Research class I took in college.
When you have to make a business decision, you look at how much each option could be worth and the probability of achieving that outcome. ... (read more)
Ask the Slot Expert: Peeking at my video poker neighbor's hand8 November 2023
When someone is playing next to me and they pause to think about how to play a hand, I frequently try to take a peek at their hand to see if I would have any questions about how to play it. I have to be quick because most players don't spend a lot of time weighing their options. If I'm lucky, they'll refer to a strategy card. ... (read more)
Hit Frequency, Reno, Atlantic City, Double UpHi there, Has there ever been any research done into what number of times a slot machine will pay "anything" during one hundred spins on the average? I have counted many times and find the average slot machine will pay roughly 16 times out of 100 spins. That includes winning a lowly cherry return to a bigger win. ... (read more)Slot Machine Pay OffDear John, In reference to the reader's question about slot machines where you play for gold or silver tokens: In Las Vegas, many of the casinos have 25-cent slots that pay off a $10 jackpot with a $10 silver souvenir token. ... (read more)Declare Your Independence from the SlotsOn this Independence Day as we celebrate 226 years of independence from the tyranny of the British, consider making your own Declaration of Independence from the tyranny of the slot machines. You don't have to stop playing machines altogether. Just switch to playing video ... (read more)Guide to Winning at Slots: The Best Number of Coins to PlayEvery casino guide to gaming recommends playing maximum coins on all slot machines. And almost everyone who's written a book about slots also recommends playing maximum coins when playing a slot machine. I analyzed over 1,000 slot machine programs and I discovered that ... (read more)John Robison |
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