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John Robison Gaming Guru  Ask the Slot Expert: Sample size works both ways20 September 2023
By John Robison, Slot Expert™ A few months ago I wrote about how the relatively small bankroll I had been allocating for a casino visit led me to have a disappointing number of sessions in which I ran out of money before I had played the number of hands I wanted to play to keep on pace with requalifying for an upper tier in the slot club. Even though the long-term payback on NSU Deuces is 99.7%, I was experiencing paybacks in the high 80s and low 90s in some sessions. I didn't allocate enough money to see me through the cold spells. As a result, my sample size was so small that my session paybacks fell into a very wide range. The larger your sample, the closer the value you're measuring will tend to be to that of the population you are sampling. The more hands or spins you play, the closer your payback will tend to be to the long-term payback of the machine you are playing. A few weeks ago, I wrote about my good fortune playing on my birthday. A kiosk gave me a birthday wish and a video poker machine gave me three sets of deuces in under 50 hands. Needless to say, that was a happy birthday. I was anxious to see how much of the money I won from those deuces I could hold on to. For a while my credit meter bounced up and down around the $3000 mark, then Lady Fortune got tired of looking after me and left to find someone else to smile on. I bid adieu to the machine after it took back half a deuces payoff. It occurred to me that sample size works both ways. Over the summer, I was considering how increasing my session bankroll would let me play more hands per session and my actual payback would tend to be closer to 99.7%. As I watched my credit meter slowly decrease, I realized that the 2000+% payback I had experienced so far would also tend to fall down to 99.7%. More play moves you away from the short term and closer to the long term. More play tends to bring you closer to the long-term payback. I have to say "tend to" because we have to acknowledge randomness. You could have a 200-hand session that was breakeven and a 400-hand session that had a royal and a payback that was well above breakeven. More play after I hit my first set of deuces didn't lower the payback I was experiencing, it increased it as I hit more sets of deuces. There's only one way to avoid approaching your game's long-term payback with more play: Stop playing. That reminds me of something that happened when my brother was visiting Las Vegas and I was playing some NSU for him with his $20. I hit a straight flush and he was up a few dollars. "You would stop now, right?" he asked me. "Well...." If you would like to see more non-smoking areas on slot floors in Las Vegas, please sign my petition on change.org. Send your slot and video poker questions to John Robison, Slot Expert™, at slotexpert@slotexpert.com. Because of the volume of mail I receive, I regret that I can't reply to every question.
Ask the Slot Expert: Banned for complaining?13 September 2023
Question: First, I would like to say thank you for this column. It has provided much interesting, informative reading.
My subject is a sad one. I was banned from the casino closest to my home (150 miles each way}, along with all of their properties. I will say that it is the tightest place I'v ever been to, besides one Indian property in Northern CA. ... (read more)
Ask the Slot Expert: How do you track the number of hands you play in a session?6 September 2023
Question: I truly enjoy your articles about slots, and in particular, video poker.
I noticed that in many of your articles you talk about about the number of hands you play. How do you track this during your sessions? I am not aware of any way to track this through your players card or on the machines themselves. ... (read more)
Ask the Slot Expert: My casino "good luck" charms30 August 2023
I don't believe in talismans or trying to influence a machine to bring me good luck. I don't do the things I've seen some people do, like putting a family photo on the screen, putting a good luck charm on the machine, or tapping the screen to try to get a reel to stop on a particular symbol.
That said, I'm not above trying to get the gods of good fortune to lean a little on my side sometimes. ... (read more)
Hit Frequency, Reno, Atlantic City, Double UpHi there, Has there ever been any research done into what number of times a slot machine will pay "anything" during one hundred spins on the average? I have counted many times and find the average slot machine will pay roughly 16 times out of 100 spins. That includes winning a lowly cherry return to a bigger win. ... (read more)Slot Machine Pay OffDear John, In reference to the reader's question about slot machines where you play for gold or silver tokens: In Las Vegas, many of the casinos have 25-cent slots that pay off a $10 jackpot with a $10 silver souvenir token. ... (read more)Declare Your Independence from the SlotsOn this Independence Day as we celebrate 226 years of independence from the tyranny of the British, consider making your own Declaration of Independence from the tyranny of the slot machines. You don't have to stop playing machines altogether. Just switch to playing video ... (read more)Guide to Winning at Slots: The Best Number of Coins to PlayEvery casino guide to gaming recommends playing maximum coins on all slot machines. And almost everyone who's written a book about slots also recommends playing maximum coins when playing a slot machine. I analyzed over 1,000 slot machine programs and I discovered that ... (read more)John Robison |
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