Ask the Slot Expert: Why does an outside straight flush beat a pair in NSU?

When playing NSU, I always have to be careful when deciding whether to hold a pair or a 3-card straight flush. The pair usually beats the partial straight flush, but not always. If the straight flush is inside or double inside, I hold the pair. But if the straight flush is outside, it beats the pair. Let me add two conditions: no deuces, and the outside straight flush is 567 through 9TJ.

I've always wondered why these outside straights beat a pair. Let's say I was dealt 5♣ 5♦ 6♦ 7♦ 10♠.

There are two things I don't like about the Wizard's Hand Analyzer. First, he doesn't have NSU as a pre-defined paytable. I always have to start with Full-Pay Deuces and make changes. Second, there's no way to see how he arrived at the EVs dispayed. The following chart shows how these EVs were calculated.

You're more likely to get some sort of payout holding the pair (5590 out of 16215, 0.34) versus going for the straight flush (210 out of 1081, 0.194265). Even though you have a chance at that nice payout on 5-of-kind, it's a long show at 20 out of 16,215 (0.001233). The straight flush may not be as juicy, but you're much more likely to hit it at 25 out of 1081 (0.023127).

I think that's enough to push the EV of holding the straight flush over that of holding the pair.

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