Ask the Slot Expert: Red-letter day in my video poker history

May 28, 2026 is a red-letter day in my video poker playing history. On this day, I finally had received the expected number of 4-deuces hands playing Not So Ugly Deuces given the number of hands I had played and the probability of hitting the hand.

I had a particularly good run of luck in May, hitting the deuces three times in just over 5000 hands instead of once as expected by the probability. As a result, I've been cashing out sizable amounts on my tickets. I hold onto the ticket for my next visit. I haven't had to put cash in a machine for more than a month.

A few days ago, I was playing NSU at a cluster of machines. These machines have "Up to 99.98%" displayed on their top glasses. A lady came up to me and asked me how I was doing.

I checked my credit meter and said that I was holding my own.

She grabbed a peek at my credit meter. "It looks like you're doing okay. Am I going to be able to play longer on these 99.8% machines?"

"Maybe, maybe not. The percentage is a long-term thing."

A quick aside: Back when I was a regular on Rudi Schiffer's radio show, I was on with an executive from one of the Tunica casinos. The subject of long-term payback came up.

I said that players don't really experience long-term payback. It takes so many hundreds of thousands of plays to have a large probability of being close to that percentage. Most players never play anywhere near that many plays. Players do however experience hit frequency.

The lady played for a little while and then got up to leave. I asked her how she did.

"I put in $20. Only got one four-of-a-kind," she said. She grabbed another peek at my credit meter. It was $200 higher than when she first saw it. "It looks like you picked a good machine."

"Well, better luck next time," I said.

I remember when I said to one of my video poker friends that it looked like she had hit something sizable based on the number of credits on her machine. At this time, many years ago, I would redeem my ticket before leaving the casino. I ended up with envelopes stuffed with $5 and $20 bills.

My friend, on the other hand, just held onto the ticket for her next visit to that casino. In addition, instead of putting in cash when her credit meter ran low, she would put in a grand at a time so she wouldn't have to stop playing and feed the machine often.

The lady saw $1700 on my credit meter the first time she looked. It looked like I was doing really well, but I had started with $2000.

I continued to play and hit another set of deuces. I guess I really did pick a good machine. Now I'm one over the expected number of 4-deuce hands.

My credit meter was now at $2800. Oh, bother, I thought quoting Winnie the Pooh.

What (good) problem might I have had with so many credits on my machine?

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