Ask the Slot Expert: Rebutting an article about why slots are not random

For the past two weeks I've been rebutting the statements I found in an article about why someone believes slot machines are not random. This week let's continue looking at some of the author's experiences that he says show non-randomness.

Many years ago Bob Dancer wrote an article in which he wrote that experience is a poor teacher in gambling. I'd generalize that to say that experience is a poor teacher for random events with thousands of possible outcomes. You can probably flip a coin or throw two dice enough times to get a good feel for how frequently each outcome occurs. But no one ever plays a slot or video poker machine enough times to get a good estimate of their long-term paybacks. You can't even use experience to determine which cards to hold in a video poker hand. Is any inquisitive NSU player who is dealt a hand with one deuce going to play the choice between 3-of-a-kind and a double-inside straight flush enough times to determine that giving up the sure thing is the proper play?

It often feels like some algorithm is at play, preventing a certain feature from happening too soon after starting a slot game and only happening once you've lost enough money to cover the feature's payout.

Just because someone feels like something is there, that doesn't mean it actually is there. Notice the qualifier "often." I guess that is there to discount the times that you sit down at a slot and hit a bonus shortly after starting to play. Moreover, I've rarely been down over $1000 before hitting 4 deuces on NSU. (In fact, I was a few dollars ahead today!)

Let me build on may last thought. You can't hit a feature if you're ahead on a machine?

Have you ever missed out on a good winning combination because just one reel wasn't in the right position? Then lo-and-behold, on the next spin, the symbol you needed is right where you needed it to be on the previous spin! Random? No! Teaser? Yes!

Random? Yes! Teaser? Eh?

Reel-spinning slots are frequently regulated to limit the occurrences of near misses. The reel stops above and below jackpot symbols can't be weighted to appear on the payline more than, say, six times more often than the jackpot symbol they're surrounding. This regulation controls how frequently near-the-payline near misses can occur.

The example in the author's observation would be a next spin near miss. There's no way to control this type of near miss -- if it even is a near miss -- because each spin must be independent. When the symbol you needed for the jackpot or the card you needed for the royal appears on the next play, it's just a coincidence.

Have you also noticed that after a modest win or payout, assuming you keep playing the same slot machine, it almost seems the game NEEDS to win that payout back before giving you another, albeit smaller, payout?

You really can't be surprised when a machine with a hit frequency less than 50% tends to give you long streaks of losing spins and shorter streaks of winning spins. Larger payouts usually hit less frequently than smaller payouts, so it's also not surprising that the hit you get after a cold spell isn't as large as the one you hit before.

If a game needs to win back a big payout before giving another one, how is it possible that I've been able to hit three sets of deuces and cashed out tickets worth more than $3000 more than once? How is it possible that I hit four deuces and then a royal 20 minutes later on a $2 NSU bar-top machine at South Point? (That was a good day.)

In my experience, it seems quite obvious that slot machines have to have some computer-coded system at play to ensure you can't win over and over again - Which is why when you win big, it is always followed by a long cold losing streak.

In my experience, a big win is sometimes followed by a cold streak, sometimes by a choppy streak, and sometimes by some more big wins. See above. Big wins are not always followed by long, cold losing streaks.

Also, in my experience, any big wins I've had in the past have come when I've spent a small fortune on that particular slot - almost as if the slot is forced to bring you back in line with the payout figure percentage rules.

The machine doesn't care -- or even know -- who's playing it. The game program reports play data to the slot club subsystem, which stores it in the slot club database, which is able to calculate your win/loss. Data doesn't flow back to the game program.

Regulations require that the reels stop where the numbers generated by the RNG say they should stop. Regulations also require that the RNG have no outside influences. The RNG doesn't care or know about how much you've lost, or won.

The author may not have had big wins unless he was losing big on the machine., but it seems like most of the people who hit multi-million-dollar jackpots on slots played only $20 to $100 before they earned the big cardboard check.

Notice how I said "it seems." That means I didn't do any research to back the statement. It means I don't have any records to support my statement.

The author almost always qualifies his accusations with "it seems" or "I feel." He has no records to back him up.

I worked closely with an electrical engineer at one job I had. I saw his notebook when we were troubleshooting a problem with some equipment. I was amazed at all of the notes he took. Whenever something was changed, he made a note about describing what was changed and the result. He could see everything we tried and what effect it had on the system.

The author's conclusions about non-randomness are based on feelings and not hard data. He did not share any records to back his claims, so I assume he has none.

Feelings are subject to Selective Memory. Incidents that match our theories are remembered, while incidents that don't are forgotten. Feelings are also subject to Confirmation Bias. Incidents that match our theories strengthen our belief that the theories are correct, while incidents that don't match our theories do nothing to disprove the theories in our minds.

Finally, all of the author's experiences are consistent with randomly determined outcomes on a slot machine.

Here are the latest Covid data. There is a difference in the hospitalization data for US versus NV. The CDC reports total number of Covid hospital admissions. Nevada reports current hospitalizations, not total admissions.

All data comes from the CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-/-*tracker/#cases_totalcases, https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions), except for Nevada current hospitalizations (https://nvhealthresponse.nv.gov/).

Send your slot and video poker questions to John Robison, Slot Expert™, at slotexpert@slotexpert.com. Because of the volume of mail I receive, I regret that I can't reply to every question.

Copyright © John Robison. Slot Expert and Ask the Slot Expert are trademarks of John Robison.

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John Robison

John Robison is an expert on slot machines and how to play them. John is a slot and video poker columnist and has written for many of gaming’s leading publications. He holds a master's degree in computer science from the prestigious Stevens Institute of Technology.

You may hear John give his slot and video poker tips live on The Good Times Show, hosted by Rudi Schiffer and Mike Schiffer, which is broadcast from Memphis on KXIQ 1180AM Friday afternoon from from 2PM to 5PM Central Time. John is on the show from 4:30 to 5. You can listen to archives of the show on the web anytime.

Books by John Robison:

The Slot Expert's Guide to Playing Slots

	Totals						Weekly Changes
	US			NV			US			NV
Date	Cases	Hosp. Adm.	Deaths	Cases	Curr. Hosp.	Deaths	Cases	Hosp. Adm.	Deaths	Cases	Curr. Hosp.	Deaths
02/28/23	103,268,408	5,992,417	1,115,637	887,803	174	11,911	270,394	25,528	2,383	1,107	(16)	8
02/21/23	102,998,014	5,966,889	1,113,254	886,696	190	11,903	261,195	24,400	2,890	1,271	26	9
02/14/23	102,736,819	5,942,489	1,110,364	885,425	164	11,894	289,381	26,880	3,540	1,236	3	27
02/07/23	102,447,438	5,915,609	1,106,824	884,189	161	11,867	275,794	25,897	3,209	1,275	(87)	(8)
01/31/23	102,171,644	5,889,712	1,103,615	882,917	248	11,875	297,914	27,653	3,749	1,419	29	41
01/24/23	101,873,730	5,862,059	1,099,866	881,498	219	11,834	355,501	34,382	4,717	1,263	(73)	11
01/17/23	101,518,229	5,827,677	1,095,149	880,235	292	11,823	423,559	34,014	3,965	4,117	(18)	45
01/10/23	101,094,670	5,793,663	1,091,184	876,118	310	11,778	472,614	47,332	2,703	0	6	27
01/03/23	100,622,056	5,746,331	1,088,481	876,118	304	11,751	405,073	43,313	2,284	2,001	(23)	46
12/27/22	100,216,983	5,703,018	1,086,197	874,117	327	11,705	511,888	35,600	2,918	2,473	(18)	28
12/20/22	99,705,095	5,667,418	1,083,279	871,644	345	11,677	463,446	42,585	2,807	3,014	(14)	20
12/13/22	99,241,649	5,624,833	1,080,472	868,630	359	11,657	464,429	28,934	3,169	4,224	19	27
12/06/22	98,777,220	5,595,899	1,077,303	864,406	340	11,630	295,669	34,108	1,524	2,660	55	6
11/29/22	98,481,551	5,561,791	1,075,779	861,746	285	11,624	307,187	27,584	2,664	2,209	31	24
11/22/22	98,174,364	5,534,207	1,073,115	859,537	254	11,600	284,712	24,272	2,168	2,064	(2)	20
11/15/22	97,889,652	5,509,935	1,070,947	857,473	256	11,580	284,889	22,561	2,280	2,771	92	10
11/08/22	97,604,763	5,487,374	1,068,667	854,702	164	11,570	274,976	24,829	2,316	1,741	23	15
11/01/22	97,329,787	5,462,545	1,066,351	852,961	141	11,555	266,430	23,562	1,199	1,661	15	11
10/25/22	97,063,357	5,438,983	1,065,152	851,300	126	11,544	260,881	22,914	5,111	1,096	(12)	8
10/18/22	96,802,476	5,416,069	1,060,041	850,204	138	11,536	267,788	22,644	2,537	1,005	6	6
10/11/22	96,534,688	5,393,425	1,057,504	849,199	132	11,530	285,222	23,034	3,061	1,322	14	21
10/04/22	96,249,466	5,370,391	1,054,443	847,877	118	11,509	330,300	24,415	3,054	702	3	15
09/27/22	95,919,166	5,345,976	1,051,389	847,175	115	11,494	366,858	26,055	2,857	1,042	(28)	48
09/20/22	95,552,308	5,319,921	1,048,532	846,133	143	11,446	400,929	29,165	2,973	1,839	0	19
09/13/22	95,151,379	5,290,756	1,045,559	844,294	143	11,427	506,189	34,540	2,978	1,758	(40)	16
09/06/22	94,645,190	5,256,216	1,042,581	842,536	183	11,411	534,380	30,772	3,526	1,762	(8)	20
08/31/22	94,110,810	5,225,444	1,039,055	840,774	191	11,391	600,148	35,692	3,297	2,434	(44)	32
08/23/22	93,510,662	5,189,752	1,035,758	838,340	235	11,359	655,186	38,778	3,198	2,550	(51)	20
08/16/22	92,855,476	5,150,974	1,032,560	835,790	286	11,339	719,100	40,762	3,375	3,561	(92)	77
08/09/22	92,136,376	5,110,212	1,029,185	832,229	378	11,262	937,985	42,621	3,822	5,729	(69)	41
08/01/22	91,198,391	5,067,591	1,025,363	826,500	447	11,221	828,560	43,943	2,695	28,360	(5)	16
07/26/22	90,369,831	5,023,648	1,022,668	798,140	452	11,205	905,096	45,024	3,072	5,468	(61)	41
07/19/22	89,464,735	4,978,624	1,019,596	792,672	513	11,164	890,226	42,620	3,035	7,077	(20)	37
07/12/22	88,574,509	4,936,004	1,016,561	785,595	533	11,127	912,596	44,750	2,575	8,611	78	67
07/05/22	87,661,913	4,891,254	1,013,986	776,984	455	11,060	683,630	30,500	2,476	8,713	53	34
06/28/22	86,978,283	4,860,754	1,011,510	768,271	402	11,026	809,381	33,856	2,580	6,189	(8)	36
06/21/22	86,168,902	4,826,898	1,008,930	762,082	410	10,990	648,857	30,459	2,040	8,081	95	41
06/14/22	85,520,045	4,796,439	1,006,890	754,001	315	10,949	757,093	29,971	2,630	9,809	42	40
06/07/22	84,762,952	4,766,468	1,004,260	744,192	273	10,909	813,916	30,146	2,190	6,818	55	26
05/31/22	83,949,036	4,736,322	1,002,070	737,374	218	10,883	670,041	24,555	2,285	5,738	16	41
05/24/22	83,278,995	4,711,767	999,785	731,636	202	10,842	756,047	25,027	2,317	5,324	37	28
05/17/22	82,522,948	4,686,740	997,488	726,312	165	10,814	680,888	21,183	2,097	3,693	35	26
05/10/22	81,842,060	4,665,557	995,371	722,619	130	10,788	534,465	17,934	3,932	2,802	32	11
05/03/22	81,307,595	4,647,623	991,439	719,817	98	10,777	432,666	14,755	2,448	2,213	(6)	49
04/26/22	80,874,929	4,632,868	988,991	717,604	104	10,728	348,507	12,597	2,446	1,447	(22)	46
04/19/22	80,526,422	4,620,271	986,545	716,157	126	10,682	266,330	10,525	3,308	1,232	(37)	497
04/12/22	80,260,092	4,609,746	983,237	714,925	163	10,185	228,465	10,343	3,627	1,228	23	53
04/05/22	80,031,627	4,599,403	979,610	713,697	140	10,132	203,709	10,312	4,105	1,059	(52)	76
03/29/22	79,827,918	4,589,091	975,505	712,638	192	10,056	206,914	9,572	4,083	1,187	5	40
03/22/22	79,621,004	4,579,519	971,422	711,451	187	10,016	200,627	8,502	8,178	742	(71)	83
03/15/22	79,418,377	4,571,017	963,244	710,709	258	9,933	253,069	17,393	5,492	24,844	(20)	113
03/08/22	79,165,308	4,553,624	957,752	685,865	278	9,820	310,308	24,471	9,870	2,099	(101)	116
03/01/22	78,855,000	4,529,153	947,882	683,766	379	9,704	465,845	33,261	14,988	6,421	(189)	196
02/22/22	78,389,155	4,495,892	932,894	677,345	568	9,508	551,462	46,726	12,797	4,023	(297)	173
02/15/22	77,837,693	4,449,166	920,097	673,322	865	9,335	1,005,691	67,963	17,059	5,280	(375)	149
02/08/22	76,782,002	4,381,203	903,038	668,042	1,240	9,186	1,769,556	92,750	18,185	11,144	(387)	235
02/01/22	75,012,446	4,288,453	884,853	656,898	1,627	8,951	3,193,570	121,420	17,885	26,555	(344)	191
01/25/22	71,818,876	4,167,033	866,968	630,343	1,971	8,760	5,102,999	143,329	16,393	57,574	99	133
01/18/22	66,715,937	4,023,704	850,575	572,769	1,872	8,627	4,983,654	147,105	13,301	25,927	(1,787)	99
01/11/22	61,732,283	3,876,599	837,274	546,842	3,659	8,528	5,421,565	139,572	12,168	32,486	2,594	100
01/05/22	56,310,718	3,737,027	825,106	514,344	1,065	8,428	3,501,427	104,272	8,867	20,966	276	61
12/28/21	52,809,291	3,362,755	816,239	493,378	789	8,367	1,693,987	63,185	11,127	7,977	89	56
12/21	51,115,304	3,569,570	805,112	485,401	700	8,311	1,063,296	55,734	9,102	5,639	9	110
12/14	50,052,008	3,513,836	796,010	479,762	691	8,201	853,262	57,885	8,946	5,008	17	91
12/07	49,198,746	3,455,951	787,064	474,754	674	8,110	821,215	66,191	8,575	5,011	23	125
11/30	48,377,531	3,389,760	778,489	469,743	651	7,985	563,746	28,426	6,309	3,343	(50)	55
11/23	47,813,785	3,361,334	772,180	466,400	701	7,930	667,924	41,145	10,754	4,784	(24)	86
11/16	47,145,861	3,320,189	761,426	461,616	725	7,844	604,748	63,164	7,862	4,577	22	85
11/09	46,541,113	3,257,025	753,564	457,039	703	7,759	516,764	33,219	8,290	5,539	34	103
SEARCH ARTICLES: This Author All Authors John Robison John Robison is an expert on slot machines and how to play them. John is a slot and video poker columnist and has written for many of gaming’s leading publications. He holds a master's degree in computer science from the prestigious Stevens Institute of Technology. You may hear John give his slot and video poker tips live on The Good Times Show, hosted by Rudi Schiffer and Mike Schiffer, which is broadcast from Memphis on KXIQ 1180AM Friday afternoon from from 2PM to 5PM Central Time. John is on the show from 4:30 to 5. You can listen to archives of the show on the web anytime. Books by John Robison: The Slot Expert's Guide to Playing Slots

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Ask the Slot Expert: Rebutting an article about why slots are not random - Part 3

Books by John Robison:

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