When You Know the Dealer's Hole Card

16 July 2023

By John Grochowski

QUESTION: I was playing blackjack a few weeks ago, and got that rare table where the dealer was tipping his hole card on almost every hand. It made iffy hands a lot easier. If I had 15 and the dealer had a 6 up, I'd normally stand, but if he had a 5 down I'd hit instead.

It left me wondering a couple of things. Is there an actual detailed strategy for that situation? How far should I push it? I felt funny about hitting 19 if I knew the dealer had 20, so I bit the bullet and took my losses on those hands.

ANSWER: Michael Shackleford has a complete strategy on the Wizard of Odds site at https://www.blackjackreview.com/wp/encyclopedia/exposed-hole-card/. It gives the best play for every possible hand in games where you can see the dealer hole card and ties push.

The "ties push" part is important. In Double Exposure Blackjack, all dealer cards are exposed, taking guesswork out of basic strategy, but one of the tradeoffs is the dealer wins ties except on blackjacks. That difference between "ties push" and "dealer wins ties" is a main driver of strategy differences between unintentionally exposed hole card games and Double Exposure.

For the exposed card game you found, let's use your hard 15 as an example. Most of the time, basic strategy tells you to stand if the dealer's up card is 2 through 6, but hit against 7 or higher. If you can see the dealer's down card, then basic strategy is to stand if the dealer's two-card total is 4.5, or 6; hit vs. 7 through 11; stand vs. 12 through 16; and hit against 17 or higher. If he dealer has a soft hand, you'd almost always hit, but stand against Ace-2, Ace-3, Ace-4, or Ace-5.

The chart does call for hitting hard 19 vs. 20 and hard 18 vs. 19 or 20, it's really better to lay off those hands. Your average return is higher if you hit those hands, but the plays will draw attention from supervisors and surveillance.

Dealers are trained not to tip their hole cards, and they're always being watched. Situations like the one you found are not at all common.


QUESTION: Caribbean Stud Poker used to be one of my games, but I rarely see it anymore. I was wondering if it might be a good candidate for an offbeat video poker game. It's not draw poker, but it's kind of fun with some nice jackpot opportunities.

ANSWER: Caribbean Stud was tried as a video poker game in the 1990s but never found a large enough audience to justify holding space in casinos.

It drew early attention for its large progressive jackpot on royal flushes, but video poker players have proven their loyalty to draw poker time and again. Even the most popular stud video poker games, such as Double Down Stud, have been niche games with limited life spans.

Draw poker games are strong on interactivity. Players choose which cards to hold and which to discard, and can discard all five in a single hand if they like. Strategy is important in determining your final hand.

Caribbean Stud requires only one decision: Should you fold after seeing your cards or make a bet of double your ante?

You win fewer hands in Caribbean Stud than in draw games. Players win only 38 percent of Caribbean Stud hands, while optimal strategy in 9-6 Jacks or Better brings winners 45.5 percent of the time.

Players tried Caribbean Stud video poker, then marched back to their draw poker favorites.