Tough Blackjack Hands

7 January 2024

By John Grochowski

QUESTION: Basic strategy for blackjack says I should split a pair of 9s when the dealer has 6 or lower, and also against 8 or 9. I get why I should split against low cards and get more money on the table against weak dealer hands. I also get why I should stand against 7, when my 18 beats dealer 17, and against 10 or Ace, when I want to avoid betting more against strong dealer hands.

My question is splitting against 8 or 9. I kind of like my 18 against an 8, where I'd push against a 10 and where the dealer has to chance busting if the face down card is 8 or lower. Even if the dealer has 9, isn't it worth waiting on a good hand like 18 to see if the dealer busts?

ANSWER: Eighteen can win only if the dealer busts or reaches a standing hand of 17. It pushes a dealer 18, and loses to 19, 20 and 21.

A probability table at wizardofodds.com shows that when the dealer has a 9 up in a six-deck game, the final hand will be 18 for a push 11.7 percent of the time. The dealer will bust 22.9 percent of hands and make 17 on 12 percent, meaning the player wins 34.9 percent of hands. Dealer's total will be 19 on 35.2 percent of hands, 20 on 12 percent and 21 on 6.1 percent, so 61.3 percent of outcomes mean an 18 loses.

You're better off taking a chance on splitting the pair and improving your hand. On each 9, you'll improve to 19 or better 61 percent of the time, just like the dealer. Stand, and your average loss is 18.5 cents per dollar wagered. Split, and reduce the loss to 8.2 cents per dollar of the original wager.

So, with 9-9 vs. 9, splitting is a defensive measure to reduce losses.

It's different with 9-9 against 8. There, you go on offense and split to increase wins.

Starting with 8, the dealer finishes with 18 on 40 percent of hands, so a push is the most likely outcome if you stand. Dealer makes 17 on 12.9 percent and busts on 24.4 percent, so 18 wins 37.3 percent of hands. Your 18 loses against dealer 19 (12.9 percent), 20 (6.9 percent) or 21 (6.9 percent), a total of 26.7 percent of hands.

You win more than you lose and that looks pretty good, but you do better by splitting for the 61-percent chance on improving. Average outcomes are a win of 9.9 cents per dollar wagered if you stand on 18, or a bigger win of 23 cents per dollar of your original wager if you split.

Splitting won't work every time. Sometimes you'll be exasperated by losing two bets instead of one. But the average outcomes favor splitting 9-9 vs. 9 or 8.


QUESTION: I've never had back-to-back jackpots, but I did just have two royals within half an hour of each other, so that made me happy! Have you had back-to-back?

ANSWER: Congrats on your royals! Closest I've come were four Aces twice within five hands a dollar White Hot Aces video poker machine. Each paid $1,200, so I got a double tax bill, but it was still high on the fun and profit scale.

Back-to-back jackpots are rare, but with millions of slots and video poker players and trillions of plays, they're also inevitable. I've enjoyed passing along the stories from lucky winners among readers who have shared their tales.