What Are Odds of That?

19 February 2023

By John Grochowski

QUESTION: I get that people who study blackjack strategy or video poker strategy can get a better return on their dollar, but isn't roulette the ultimate beginners' game? Just bet red vs. black or odd vs. even, and you have what amounts to a coin flip.

OK, you also lose on the zeroes, but what are the odds of that? There's no strategy to learn and you get a pretty good deal.

ANSWER: Your "what are the odds of that?" point brought to mind a charity casino day in my hometown. I was playing roulette, and the ball landed in 00.

The player to my right exclaimed, "What are the odds of that?" I replied, "The same as any other number." He got a quizzical look on his face, then replied, "You know, that's right!"

Zeroes in roulette are not rare. On an American double-zero wheel, 0 turns up an average of once per 38 spins, the same as 00, 6, 17, 24 or any other number.

Roulette bets with even-money payoffs -- red or black, odd or even, 1-18 or 19-36 -- each have 18 winning numbers. Including the zeroes, there are 20 losing numbers on a double-zero wheel or 19 with a single zero.

That means you win an average of 47.37 percent of spins if the wheel has 0 and 00, or 48.65 percent on single-zero wheels.

Craps isn't usually thought of as a beginners' game, but a player who does nothing but bet on pass gets the same even-money payoffs as the roulette bets listed above and wins 49.295 percent of decisions. Likewise in baccarat, betting on player brings even-money payoffs to winners, and bettors win an average of 49.32 percent of decisions.

Just to focus on the simplest bets with even-money payoffs, no commissions, no special rules and no strategies, craps bets on pass, don't pass, come or don't come and the baccarat bet on player come closer to a virtual coin flip than any roulette wagers.


QUESTION: We had a family casino trip. I've only played slots like my mom and my aunt. My dad's a craps player. Everybody else scatters around, mainly on slots.

My uncle was playing video poker, and I decided to sit next to him and give it a try. I asked advice on hands and tried not to annoy him too much.

One hand, I had two pairs, including two Aces. He told me to hold the Aces and throw the rest away, so I did. I didn't get any more Aces or anything, but I got the same pay I would have on two pairs.

When he got two pairs with Aces, he held both pairs. I asked why, and he said we were playing different games. I was playing Double Double Bonus Poker and he was playing Bonus Poker Deluxe.

Until then, I didn't even notice there were different games. I just played what already was on the screen. I didn't ask for more info. I was overwhelmed already. But why the difference in what you hold?

ANSWER: Different games have different returns on various hands, and you must adapt strategy to maximize potential return.

For a five-coin bet, Bonus Poker Deluxe pays 400 coins for any four of a kind, including four Aces. Double Double Bonus Poker pays 800 for four Aces or a whopping 2,000 if the Aces are accompanied by a 2, 3 or 4 as the fifth card.

There's much more incentive to chase four Aces in Double Double than in Bonus Deluxe. That leads to the divide in two-pair strategy.