The Sharp Shooter Bet

23 April 2023

By John Grochowski

Checking my email on an unseasonably warm April day, I found an inquiry from a craps player wanting to know about a side bet.

"Do you know anything about a Sharp Shooter bet?" it asked. "I'd never seen it before, but it looks like the shooter has to make a bunch of points in a row. A couple of other players were trying it, but I sat it out."

As is common with craps side bets, you won't find Sharp Shooter everywhere. It's been around since 2009, but distribution remains sparse.

Sharp Shooter bets open on the comeout for a new shooter. You can't make the bet for a shooter who's already into his roll.

You win if the shooter makes three or more points before sevening out. If you're making a standard bet on pass, three wins in a row will bring even-money payoffs three times. But a three-win roll brings 5-1 on Sharp Shooter.

Payoffs climb from there. If the shooter makes four points n a row, the return is 9-1, then rises to 19-1 for five, 29-1 for six, 49-1 for seven, 99-1 for eight, 199-1 for nine and maxes out at 299-1 for 10 or more points made.

Win 10 consecutive $10 bets on pass, and you win a total of $100. But even if you bet only $1 on the side bet, 10 consecutive points will bring you $299 in Sharp Shooter winnings.

What are the odds of pulling that off? There's the rub.

Calculations at wizardofodds.com show the shooter will make three or more points only 6.7 percent of the time. That breaks down into nearly 4 percent --3.98 percent, to be more precise -- for exactly three points, 1.61 percent for four, 0.66 percent for five, 0.27 percent for six, 0.11 percent for seven, 0.043 percent for eight, 0.018 percent for nine and 0.012 percent for 10 or more.

Some who are attuned to numbers might ask why the decline in frequency of wins is smaller in going from nine to 10 or more winners than on any other consecutive numbers. Why is the drop from 0.043 for eight wins to 0.018 on nine so much steeper than the next dip to 0.012 on 10 or more?
That's due to the "or more" part of the top payoff. That 0.012 percent includes not only the portion of trials in which the shooter makes 10 points, but also 11 points, 12 points and so on.

The smallest payoff, the 5-1 for three points, accounts for 19.9 percent of your overall return on the wager. That's the biggest share among the possible payoffs. The big jackpot on 10 or more points is so rare that it accounts for only 3.6 percent of the wager's return.

Despite the potential rewards, the low frequency of payoffs leads to a house edge of 21.87 percent. Coming at the same game with low house edges such as 1.41 percent on pass of come and 1.52 percent when placing 6 or 8, that high house edge leaves Sharp Shooter as strictly a wager for jackpot hunters. Proceed at your own risk.

Of course, "proceed at your own risk" is a built-in part of craps. The same can apply to one-roll bets such as any seven with its 16.67 percent edge or any craps at 11.11 percent.

I've sometimes thought side bets aren't as prevalent in craps as in blackjack because many standard wagers have a side-bet feel with high payoffs and high house edges. I don't make such bets, but it's up to players to decide whether bigger pays are worth bigger risks.