The Casino Answer Man

I have a friend who, when she gambles, plays only video poker. In the last 10 months - and she gambles maybe every four to six weeks - she has hit a royal flush SIX TIMES! She's done this at different locales: Trump's in Gary, Las Vegas and Iowa. Sometimes she's playing dollars, sometimes quarters, sometimes one coin, sometimes five, but altogether she's won at least $4,500. Is she just very, very lucky or would you consider her to be an expert player?

Even expert players are lucky when they hit a royal flush, and royal flushes alone are not enough to tell whether a player is an expert. In fact, some non-expert plays will yield more royals in the long run than expert strategy.

Let's say you start with 6 of clubs, 6 of hearts, 8 of diamonds, 9 of spades and Queen of clubs. If you're trying to force as many royals as possible, you hold just the Queen and discard the rest. But the expert play here is to hold the pair of 6s. The frequency of hitting two pair, three of a kind, full houses or four of a kind when you hold the low pair more than makes up for giving up the long-shot chance at a royal.

The amateur's play will bring more royals, but the expert play will bring more money. The idea for experts is to find an optimal balance between going for the big one and making plays that will bring enough return to keep them going between royals.

Is your friend an expert or just very lucky? I don't have enough information to tell whether she's an expert, but there's no doubt she's been lucky.

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