Strip Games Getting Tougher

11 June 2023

By John Grochowski

QUESTION: I read an article on Apple News and I wanted to get your take. It said visitors to Las Vegas were losing more money than they used to, and it was because blackjack payoffs were lower and roulette wheels had triple zeroes.

How much difference does that really make? I love Las Vegas and don't want to stop going.

ANSWER: The report you mention originated in the Wall Street Journal on May 29, then spread to Apple News, Yahoo News and other outlets.

It deals with conditions on the Las Vegas Strip. Games that give you a better shot to win remain plentiful in the downtown area and in locals-oriented casinos such as Arizona Charlie's, Boulder Station and Green Valley Ranch.

Higher house edges on the Strip are part of a long-term trend. The articles mention 6:5 payoffs instead of the standard 3:2 on blackjacks. Tables with the weaker payoff are increasing, but 6:5 blackjack first appeared on the Strip in August 2002. The monthly Las Vegas Advisor mentioned it almost immediately. I first wrote about the payoff and its effect in September 2002 and have mentioned it often ever since.

A 6:5 return on blackjacks increases the house edge by 1.4 percent. With 3:2 payoffs, the entire house edge against a basic strategy player is less than 1 percent, so tacking on 1.4 percent is a ton.

Imagine you're betting $10 a hand at a table with three players, averaging 100 hands per hour. That puts $1,000 per hour at risk. If blackjacks pay 6:5, it costs you an extra $14 -- more than a bet per hour.

Triple zero roulette has spread, but it made its Strip debut as Sands Roulette at the Venetian toward the end of 2016, and I wrote about it in February 2017.

As with single- or double-zero roulette, payoffs are made at what would be true odds if there were 36 numbers. But with the zeroes, there are 37 numbers at a single-zero wheel, 38 at double-zero or 39 at triple zero.

The gap between payoffs and true odds grows with each zero, so the basic house edge grows from 2.7 percent with one zero to 5.26 percent with two zeroes to 7.69 percent with three zeroes.

If you make $1,000 worth of wagers, playing double-zero roulette costs you $25.60 more than the single-zero version, and playing a triple zero game costs you $24.30 more than the double-zero game.

There's a lot to love on the Strip with shows, top-end restaurants and the sheer variety of games with dozens of casinos within walking distance.

But if what you want is the best shot to win, the locals joints offer better blackjack and roulette conditions, higher pay tables on video poker and even higher payback percentages on slot machines.


QUESTION: In video poker, I've read there's a 1 in 649,740 chance of getting a royal flush in the first five cards. How do you calculate that?

ANSWER: Multiply 52 cards available for the first card dealt by 51 for the second, 50 for the third, 49 for the fourth and 48 for the fifth. That gives you 311,875,200 possible hands. But card order doesn't matter, so you have to adjust. Multiply screen positions -- 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1, or 120.

Divide possible hands by 120 to get 2.598,960 hands where card order doesn't matter. Those hands include four royals -- one for each suit. So, divide 2,598,960 by four and you'll see one of every 649.740 possible hands is a royal flush.