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Some Blackjack Strategies

8 October 2023

QUESTION: I've just about gotten used to hitting soft 18 when the dealer has 9, 10 or Ace. I haven't really studied strategy, but I think I've picked most of it up, and I read to hit those hands often enough that I do it even though it makes me a little uncomfortable.

What about doubling down, though? I was playing at the same table as a guy I work with, and he doubled down a few times with Ace-7. I asked why he kept doing that, and he just said he had a good feeling. I got the feeling there was more to the story, so I asked at work and he said that was the right strategy play, but he doesn't like to talk strategy at the table.

Can you explain?

ANSWER: I don't know how often you play blackjack, but I'd suggest you look over a basic strategy chart or practice on software that will alert you to strategy mistakes.

On the six-deck games that are common today, basic strategy calls for doubling down on Ace-7 against a dealer's 2 through 6 if the dealer hits soft 17, or 3 through 6 if the dealer stands on all 17s.

Let's run some numbers with the assumption the dealer hits soft 17.

If you have Ace-7 and the dealer has a 2 up, your average profit per dollar of your original wager is 6 cents if you hit, rising to 11.6 cents if you double down.
Average profits against other dealer cards, with standing listed before doubling, are 8.8 and 17.5 cents vs. 3; 12.2 and 24.5 cents vs. 4; 15.1 and 30.2 cents vs. 5 and 17.8 and 35.6 cents vs. 6.

If the dealer stands on all 17s, it means your soft 18 wins against soft 17 without the dealer getting a chance to improve with a hit. That narrows the gap between profitability on hitting vs. doubling, but the only situation where the gap is reversed is when the dealer shows a 2.

In that case, stand, and the average profit per dollar is 12.3 cents vs. 12.1 when doubling. So, if the dealer stands on all 17s, basic strategy players double Ace-7 only against 3 through 6 while standing against a dealer 2.

As with any hand, you'll win some and lose some on soft 17, but your average results are best if you know when to double down.

QUESTION: As I was leaving the casino, I found I had $100 and change in winnings. I left happy enough with that, but I was thinking, what if I wanted to take a chance on doubling my winnings? If I lost, well, at least I broke even and had a good time. If I won, I had $200-plus.

What would give me the best chance of doing that? I'm looking strictly at one bet and done. Blackjack? Craps? Red or black in roulette?

ANSWER: I'm a cautious sort, so I'd be happy with the profit in hand and walk away. But a risk-taking mood came over me one day, I'd probably take my $100 to a baccarat table and make one bet on banker.

If banker won, the house would collect a 5 percent commission, so I wouldn't quite double my money. My profit would be $95.

Banker wins more often that it loses, so my attempt to almost double would succeed more than half the time. Don't get carried away, though. The house still has an edge because of the commission, so this is not a sure-fire profit scheme.
John Grochowski

John Grochowski is the best-selling author of The Craps Answer Book, The Slot Machine Answer Book and The Video Poker Answer Book. His weekly column is syndicated to newspapers and Web sites, and he contributes to many of the major magazines and newspapers in the gaming field, including Midwest Gaming and Travel, Slot Manager, Casino Journal, Strictly Slots and Casino Player.

Listen to John Grochowski's "Casino Answer Man" tips Tuesday through Friday at 5:18 p.m. on WLS-AM (890) in Chicago. Look for John Grochowski on Facebook and Twitter @GrochowskiJ.

John Grochowski Websites:

www.casinoanswerman.com

Books by John Grochowski:

> More Books By John Grochowski

John Grochowski
John Grochowski is the best-selling author of The Craps Answer Book, The Slot Machine Answer Book and The Video Poker Answer Book. His weekly column is syndicated to newspapers and Web sites, and he contributes to many of the major magazines and newspapers in the gaming field, including Midwest Gaming and Travel, Slot Manager, Casino Journal, Strictly Slots and Casino Player.

Listen to John Grochowski's "Casino Answer Man" tips Tuesday through Friday at 5:18 p.m. on WLS-AM (890) in Chicago. Look for John Grochowski on Facebook and Twitter @GrochowskiJ.

John Grochowski Websites:

www.casinoanswerman.com

Books by John Grochowski:

> More Books By John Grochowski