Quit While You're Ahead?

25 June 2023

By John Grochowski

QUESTION: I wanted to get your opinion on a system. My sister and I play slots together once in a while, and her new boyfriend is a craps player.

At a potluck on Memorial Day, he was expounding loudly on how to win at any casino game. He said that in any day at a casino, there's a point at which you're ahead. If you leave at that point, you'll always win money. It might only be a dollar, but you're ahead and it will add up to good money over time.

I just kind of nodded and smiled. Sis's boyfriend is that type who's not open to discussion. He just gets louder and more insistent.

Still, something about that didn't seem right.

ANSWER: It's not true every session has a point at which you're ahead. I have no doubt that's why you felt the advice seemed wrong from the start.

Anyone who has played much has had days that began with losses followed by more losses from which they never recovered. On such days, it's important you stay within your budget for the day and don't go reaching for extra cash or head to the ATM.

There will be days you're ahead and days you aren't. Over time, the house edge will hold up.

One thing leaving whenever you're ahead will accomplish is to reduce your total wagers. That reduces overall losses because you're betting less, but losses are the same on a percentage basis in accordance with the house edge.

Beyond the initial false premise that there's always a point at which you're ahead, you have to ask yourself why you're at the casino in the first place. Is it for a shot to win, no matter how small the profit? Is it for a day's entertainment?

Are you really willing to leave if your first 40-cent bet on a slot machine brings an 80-cent payoff, or if the first roll after you make a $10 pass line bet is a winner 7 for a $10 profit?

Realistically, almost no one is going to leave immediately with a quick but small profit. It hardly seems worth the gas to drive to the casino to leave after one bet, or just a few bets.

Managing your money wisely and sticking to limits is laudable, but making a hard and fast rule that you'll leave anytime you're ahead is unrealistic and doesn't guarantee long-term profits.


QUESTION: It amazes me to walk around the slots and video poker machines showing the last player cashed out thousands of credits. They used to ask you to play any big win off the screen. Do you know why that stopped?

ANSWER: It became impractical in the age of low-denomination slot machines and payouts by ticket printer.

For decades, slot attendants asked players to spin again after a big win so it wouldn't stay on the screen and make other players think the machine was due to turn cold.

Today, a payout of thousands of credits doesn't necessarily mean a big win. If you start with a $20 bill, you get 2,000 credits on a penny machine. If you see a recent cash out of 1,500 credits, it could mean the previous player lost $5.

Many big wins are no longer paid by hand. It used to be common practice for a slot attendant to pay a quarter video poker player $1,000 in currency for a royal flush, then ask the player to play once more. Now the player can just print a ticket, and if the royal stays on the screen, so be it.