CasinoCityTimes.com

Home
Gaming Strategy
Featured Stories
News
Newsletter
Legal News Financial News Casino Opening and Remodeling News Gaming Industry Executives Author Home Author Archives Author Books Search Articles Subscribe
Newsletter Signup
Stay informed with the
NEW Casino City Times newsletter!
Recent Articles
Best of John Grochowski
author's picture
 

Keno Odds

16 April 2023

QUESTION: I vaguely recall a live keno game that had a big progressive jackpot if you picked all 20 spots. My wife and I used to laugh. There were flyers promoting this game in our rooms when we checked in.

We knew there was no way we'd ever picked all the numbers, but there were smaller payouts for picking fewer, and only a few numbers with no payout at all. Even if you got all the numbers wrong, there was a pretty nice pay.

We tried it a few times just for grins and had a small pay or two. We lost money overall, but got a little entertainment out of it.

I know that's not enough information to give me a house edge on the game, but I was wondering about the chances of picking all 20 numbers. It has to be astronomical, doesn't it?

ANSWER: Astronomical, indeed. I turned to Michael Shackelford's wizardofodds.com for an answer, confident he'd have done the calculations long ago.

Keno is played with 80 numbered balls, and 20 of those are drawn. Shackelford calculated the chances of picking all 20 at about 1 in 3.535 quintillion. At the time he wrote his comment, Shackelford assumed an Earth population of 5 billion people and said if everyone played once a week, there would be a 20-number winner an average of once per 13.56 million years.

Today, the Earth's population is closing in on 8 billion people, so it'd be closer to one per 8.5 million years. Either way, I wouldn't go into the game expecting a big jackpot.


QUESTION: I have a question about Bonus Poker Deluxe. I've been playing a lot. I sometimes can get an 8-6 game, but usually 8-5 is the best I can do.

All four of a-kinds pay 400 when I bet five coins. Jacks or Better pays only 125, and even Double Bonus and the like pay only 250 on 5s through Kings.

Does the bigger pay on lesser four of a-kinds change strategy? Should I hold only one of two pair, or a low pair instead of four to a flush?

ANSWER: Bonus Poker Deluxe's enhanced payoffs on quads aren't enough to drive strategy changes. Strategy for BPD looks a lot like that for Jacks or Better. Differences are mostly due to two pairs paying 1-for-1 instead of JB's 2-for-1. We chase more inside straights in BPD because the payoff on two pairs reduces the value of a complete redraw.

We hold two pairs instead of one and hold four parts of a flush instead of a low pair just as we would in Jacks or Better. We give up a long shot at four of a kind, but have a better average return with a one-card draw for a full house or flush.

Let's take a short by-the-numbers look:

  • Dealt Jack-Jack-7-7-3, average returns per five coins wagered in are 7.98 coins when you hold both pairs vs. 7.60 if you hold only the two Jacks regardless of whether you're playing the 8-6 or 8-5 variation. There is no shot at a flush, so the difference between the 6-for-1 and 5-for-1 payoff is immaterial.

  • Dealt 7 of clubs with 7, 10, 6 and 2 of hearts, average return for holding 7-7 is 4.03 coins on either 8-6 or 8-5 BPD. If you hold the four hearts and discard the other 7, averages are 5.74 coins in 8-6 BPD or 4.78 in the 8-5 game. Either way, the average return is higher if you draw for a flush than if you try to push quads.
John Grochowski

John Grochowski is the best-selling author of The Craps Answer Book, The Slot Machine Answer Book and The Video Poker Answer Book. His weekly column is syndicated to newspapers and Web sites, and he contributes to many of the major magazines and newspapers in the gaming field, including Midwest Gaming and Travel, Slot Manager, Casino Journal, Strictly Slots and Casino Player.

Listen to John Grochowski's "Casino Answer Man" tips Tuesday through Friday at 5:18 p.m. on WLS-AM (890) in Chicago. Look for John Grochowski on Facebook and Twitter @GrochowskiJ.

John Grochowski Websites:

www.casinoanswerman.com

Books by John Grochowski:

> More Books By John Grochowski

John Grochowski
John Grochowski is the best-selling author of The Craps Answer Book, The Slot Machine Answer Book and The Video Poker Answer Book. His weekly column is syndicated to newspapers and Web sites, and he contributes to many of the major magazines and newspapers in the gaming field, including Midwest Gaming and Travel, Slot Manager, Casino Journal, Strictly Slots and Casino Player.

Listen to John Grochowski's "Casino Answer Man" tips Tuesday through Friday at 5:18 p.m. on WLS-AM (890) in Chicago. Look for John Grochowski on Facebook and Twitter @GrochowskiJ.

John Grochowski Websites:

www.casinoanswerman.com

Books by John Grochowski:

The Craps Answer Book

> More Books By John Grochowski