Good Strategy That Might Look Bad

18 June 2023

By John Grochowski

Blackjack Bob and I met for breakfast in the first week of June. In a major upset, it took all the way until the food arrived before the talk turned to blackjack.

The turn from families and baseball was inevitable, and it was Bob who broke the ice.

"I had a run of soft 18 hands and 19 hands last week, and I'm afraid I horrified a couple of players," he said. "Surprised the dealer, for that matter."

I had a pretty good idea of what was coming. Bob had been hitting soft 18 against 9 or higher, doubling down against 6 or lower, and even doubling on soft 19 against a dealer's 6.

"Guilty on all counts," Bob said, grinning. "All basic strategy plays that confound those who only kinda, sorta know basic.

"I thought when we got together you could whip out your phone and run the numbers."

Easy enough. I use the hand calculator at wizardofodds.com. I set it up for the rules Bob was playing: six decks, dealer hits soft 17, double down allowed on any first two cards, double down allowed after splitting pairs.

With Ace-8 -- a soft 19 -- the best play is to stand most of the time. But when the dealer has a 6 face up, you have an edge and can maximize profits by doubling down. If you stand, your average profit is 45.2 cents per dollar wagered. Hit, and your profit plummets to 23.1 cents. But if you double down, the profit climbs to 46.2 cents per dollar of your original bet.

You'll win less often when you double rather than stand, but the wins will be bigger and your average profit rises.

Going to soft 18 and Ace-7 vs. 6, average profits are 22.3 cents when standing, 17.8 cents when hitting, and 35.7 cents when doubling. The margin narrows with lower dealer cards, but even when the dealer shows a 2, averages on Ace-7 are profits of 11.3 cents when standing, 6 cents when hitting and max out at 11.6 cents when doubling.

No matter what the numbers, some players will always wonder how you could risk spoiling an 18 or 19.

"Exactly," he said. "But you should have been there. These hands kept coming up, more than usual. Must have had a dozen of them in less than 2 hours.

"What really irritated one fellow is that some of my soft hands were three or four cards. The one time my soft 19 was Ace-8 against 6, I doubled. When it was Ace-3-5, I stood.

"This guy tells me, 'Oh, you're inconsistent about it. Before, you're hitting 19, now you're standing.' I just said, 'Yep,' and let him stew."

All those plays are straight off the basic strategy chart.

Bob amended my statement. "At least, they're straight off a good basic strategy chart. Some just say "D" for double on soft 19 vs. 6 and don't tell you what to do if soft doubling isn't allowed or if you have three or more cards. Better cards say, "Ds," telling you to double when you can but stand when you can't."

Sure, I agreed. Similarly, on hard doubles and on soft doubles with 17 or less, the best charts will say "Dh," telling you to double when you can and hit when you can't.

With Bob's Ace-3-5 vs. 6, doubling wasn't an option. Average outcomes were a profit of 45.8 cent per dollar when standing and only 23.9 cents when hitting.

"So, I stood," Bob said. "Somebody didn't notice the distinction between hitting and doubling. His loss."