Better Blackjack Players Today?

23 July 2023

By John Grochowski

Over breakfast on a rainy July morning, Blackjack Bob came straight to the point.

"Does it seem to you like blackjack players are getting better? Mistakes still happen, and we can talk about that. But overall, it seems better."

I've had the same feeling. It's strictly anecdotal with no hard data, but there seems to be more play closer to basic strategy than when Bob and I were young.

"Exactly," he said. "I see fewer players standing on soft 17. That used to be a trap hand. Now most players hit, and some even double down n the proper situations."

I told Bob I noticed the same thing on soft 18. I used to be regularly castigated by players and lectured by dealers when I hit Ace-7 against a 10. Now I notice more players making the proper basic strategy play themselves.

"There always are new players who don't get it and players who insist on trusting their gut," Bob said. "There are still mistakes made. You mentioned players catching on to Ace-7 vs. 10 and I'd add Ace-7 vs. Ace, but most still don't hit Ace-7 vs. 9."

True enough. Eighteen isn't as strong a hand as some players would like to believe. If the 18 is soft and the dealer up card is 9 or higher, it's best to take a chance at improving the hand.

If you stand on soft 18 vs. 9, the average loss is 18.3 cents per dollar wagered. Hit, and you trim that loss to 9.8 cents.

Bob tapped his index finger, as if counting down a list.

"Too many players hit a wall at hitting hard 16 if the dealer shows a 7. They'll hit against, Ace, 10, 9 or 8, but not 7. You and I know it's more important to hit 16 against 7 than against 10."

Yep. If you make a standing hand when hitting hard 16, the result s more likely to be a winner against a 7 than against a 10.

With 10-6 vs. 7, average losses are 47.7 cents per dollar wagered if you stand while dropping to 40.9 cents if you hit. If you start with 9-7, averages are 48.1 cents by standing or 40.8 by hitting. It's not a close call.

With 10-6 vs. 10, average losses are 54.1 cents per dollar if you stand and 53.5 if you hit. With 9-7, averages are 53.7 for a stand and 53.5 for a hit. Hard 16 vs. 10 is a close call; hard 16 vs. 7, not so much.

"I have another one for you," Bob said. "Hard 12 against 2. More get this right than used to, but I think the majority still can't bring themselves to hit. "

Hard 12 vs. 2 loses more than it wins, but your average outcome is better if you hit hard 12 vs. 2. The dealer doesn't bust often enough for you to sit and wait.

If your 12 consists of 10-2, the average 28.9-cent loss if you stand dips to 25.2 if you hit. Average losses with 9-3 are 28.6 cents for stand and 25.6 for hit; with 8-4 they're 28.5 for stand and 25.5 for hit; and with 7-5 they're 28.2 for hit and 25.4 for stand. With 6-6, split the pair instead.

"There are others," Bob said. "Too many players still take even money on blackjack vs. Ace. Too many refuse to split 8s vs. 10. Not enough double down on 11 vs. 10.

"But I suppose we're quibbling around the edges here. I'm pretty sure the average level of play has risen. Too bad the games are getting tougher."