Beating craps

10 November 2019

By John Grochowski

QUESTION: I’m just learning craps and really like it a lot. One of my friends put me onto it, and he’s been a big help in learning.

I’ve been trying to think of ways that might help my odds a little, and thought about placing $12 on 6 and betting $3 on 7. The other numbers don’t matter, so if the roll is 6, I win $14 while losing the $3 on 7, and if the roll is 7, my $12 win balances the $12 loss on 6. So I either win $11 or break even.

I told my friend, and he just laughed and said, “It doesn’t work like that. Skip the 7.” He didn’t really explain why. So tell me why.

ANSWER: Just about everyone who’s ever played craps has had thoughts similar to yours. I receive similar questions on combining bets on any 7 with other wagers several times a year. I answer them here from time to time.

The reason your system doesn’t work is that while numbers other than 6 or 7 don’t matter on your place bet on 6, they do matter on your bet on any 7. Any 7 is a one-roll bet that loses on all rolls except 7.

You’ll often have to replenish your bet on 7 if you’re going to have it in action as long as your place bet on 6 is up. If the shooter rolls a 5, for example, your bet on 6 stays in action, but your bet on 7 loses and keeping your system going will cost another $3 bet.

Imagine a sequence of 36 rolls in which each possible combination shows up once. Further, you always have a $12 place bet on 6 in action, and always have a $3 bet on 7.

On the place bet, no money will change hands on the 25 rolls that are not 6 or 7. On the 11 rolls in which a decision is reached, you risk a total of $132. You lose on the six 7s, but on the five 6s you’re paid at 7-6 odds. On each winner, you keep your $12 wager and take $14 in winnings.

You risk $132, and at the end of the trial you have $130.

Because any 7 is decided on every roll, the 36 rolls at $3 a pop means you risk $108. You lose on 30 rolls. On each 7, you keep your $3 wager and get $12 in winnings at 4-1 odds.

So on the 7s bets, you have $90 of your $108 at the end of the trial.

Far from insuring a profit, adding the 7s bets increases your loss from $2 on the place bets alone to $20 on the system.

Making bad bets to cover weaknesses in good bets is not a recipe for success. Any 7 has a house edge of 16.67%, much worse than the 1.52% on placing 6. The house edge on your combination is 8.33%. Run from it with all due haste.

QUESTION: Would you rather play a hand correctly or win?

The reason I ask is that I accidentally broke up a pair of aces in Double Double Bonus Poker. The draw filled in a royal flush!

Should I be celebrating the royal or kicking myself for a bad play?

ANSWER: I’d be celebrating the win, without doubt.

You don’t want to make mistakes. There’s a better chance of winning when you play the hand correctly. But when a royal mistake turns into a regal win, laugh at yourself and take the money.