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Gaming Guru
Pay Tables Do Not Reflect True Odds6 March 2004
The payout table on a Jacks or Better machine makes one wonder what kind of abacus was used during the invention of the game. Now, mind you, I'm not complaining about the 99.6 percent payback it offers the expert players. I'm simply puzzled that the pay table does not reflect the true odds for each of the winning hands. Why should a full house pay 8- or 9-for-1 while the straight pays 4-1 and the flush 5-for-1, when we'll make more full houses (1 in 87 hands) then either straights or flushes? We'll make about the same number of straights as flushes, so why the premium on those flushes, when they both come up about once every 90 hands? At the upper end of the pay table, things are even more confused. The 25-for-1 payout on quadruplets is a mite light when compared to the full house when we recall that those quads occur only once for every five full houses! However, the worst of all is the relatively rare straight flush, which put in an appearance once every 9,610 times (on average, not on schedule) yet pays only 50-for-1 - about 1/10 its true odds compared to a full tub. Unfortunately, most players are very uncertain about how to play that potential straight flush, so it is even more rare an occurrence that was stated above. Consider the following hand:
Do we play this hand by: Expert players always hold those cards that offer the greatest chance of making the most coins back when all possible draws are considered. We would expect the draws to distribute as follows:
Expert play always goes to the highest EV. That's why, in the above example, drawing two cards to the three-card straight flush is the correct play. The three-card straight flush is a superior hand despite its being open on one end only. Even good players would be misled by its seemingly weak appearance. That's
why expert play requires good instructions. Recent Articles
Lenny Frome |
Lenny Frome |