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Gaming Guru
Why is a slot like tossing a coin?23 October 2006
Dear Mark, Tossing a coin is like getting a hit on a slot machine because they are both binary decisions. There are only two possible outcomes. For the coin, the outcome is either heads or tails. For the slot, the outcome is either hit or no hit. They are different, however, in their probabilities. For the coin, the probability of heads or tails is 0.5. For the slot, the probability of a hit is probably much less than 0.5 for a reel-spinning slot and possibly much more for a video slot. The writer of the original letter claimed that if slots were truly random, we wouldn't see hot rooms and cold rooms. Instead, we'd see the odd hit here and there. The coins in my coin flip analogy are truly random and we see all sorts of outcomes — mostly heads, mostly tails and roughly even. The presence of streaks does not indicate something is not random. Seeing banks, rooms, or even entire casinos hot or cold does not indicate the machines are not random. It's hard not to believe that the bank of machines that were red hot last night and ice cold this morning have not been changed in some way, but it's all just a consequence of randomness. Best of luck in and out of the casinos,
Dear Tim, Thanks for the kind words about my column. There is no standard definition of a loose machine, although I think everyone would call a machine with a long-term payback of 99% and above loose. The looseness of a machine is tied to its long-term payback, not its hit frequency. Long-term payback and hit frequency are independent. A loose machine does not have to hit more frequently than a tight machine. But it's difficult to convince players that a 99% payback machine with a low hit frequency is a loose machine when the hits are few and far between. So, many players call high hit frequency machines loose, even though these machines might have low long-term paybacks. Video slots hit often and appear loose, for example, but their long-term paybacks are not necessarily high. As far as I'm concerned, a loose machine is the Holy Grail of slot machines. It can mean whatever you want it to mean and you can go on your own search for it if you wish. The RNG has nothing to do with looseness and long-term payback. Slot programmers change the long-term payback of a machine by changing the distribution of symbols on the virtual reels, not by changing the RNG. As for the multi-denomination machine, it may or may not have the same virtual reel layouts for the different denominations. As a general rule, video poker pay tables increase in long-term payback as you go up in denomination on a multi-denomination machine, so I would expect the paybacks of the slot games to increase with denomination too. Unlike video poker, there's no way to tell the long-term payback of a slot machine, so we don't know for sure on any particular machine. Even if the machine you've found is truly a loose machine, keep in mind that it still pays back less than 100% in the long run. You should only move up in denomination if you have the bankroll to support moving up. Best of luck in and out of the casinos, Send your slot and video poker questions to John Robison, Slot Expert, at slotexpert@comcast.net. Because of the volume of mail I receive, I regret that I can't send a reply to every question. Also be advised that it may take several months for your question to appear in my column. This article is provided by the Frank Scoblete Network. Melissa A. Kaplan is the network's managing editor. If you would like to use this article on your website, please contact Casino City Press, the exclusive web syndication outlet for the Frank Scoblete Network. To contact Frank, please e-mail him at fscobe@optonline.net. Recent Articles
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