When are progressive video poker machines due?

John,

Please clarify what I believe to be inaccurate information. On another site I read "Video poker machines don't become 'due' unles they offer a progressive jackpot" and then it went on to discuss a breakeven point. I'm confused. I play progressives and I never thought that a higher jackpot would make a machine more likely to hit. Should I not waste my time on low jackpots? I would appreciate it if you could shed any light on the "breakeven point." Thanks much.

Dan

Dear Dan,

Good call on the misinformation. The cards drawn for use in a video poker hand are chosen at random, without regard for what has happened in the past or for what the pay table is or for what the value of any progressive is. Video poker machines are never due.

A progressive video poker machine crosses over from negative expectation to positive expectation at the progressive's breakeven point. At the breakeven point, the long-term payback for a machine is 100%. Below the breakeven point, there is a house edge. Above it, a player advantage.

But, and it's a big but, we're talking about long-term payback here. You would have to be able to play the machine with the progressive over the breakeven point for many hundreds of thousands (or even millions) of hands to have a reasonable chance of showing positive results from your play. And as soon as the progressive is hit and the value goes back to the reset amount, you have to pack your bags and move on because the house has the edge again. You have to wait for the progressive to go back over the breakeven point to get the advantage back.

Many successful video poker players do just that -- play progressives only when they're positive.

Best of luck in and out of the casinos,
John

Send your slot and video poker questions to John Robison, Slot Expert, at slotexpert@comcast.net. Because of the volume of mail I receive, I regret that I can't reply to every question.