Ask the Slot Expert: What's the payback on this video poker progressive?

Question: I’m currently playing a progressive Triple Double Bonus Poker $1 machine that is a 9/5/4 game. The royal flush with 5 coins is currently at $10,238.70.

I’ve never seen one this high in all my years of playing and know that this is now a positive play game. With that being said, what would the return be with that high of a royal flush?

Answer: Seven years ago when I was coming out to Las Vegas from New Jersey every other week or so to deal with renovations on a house I bought, I stayed at the LVH/Westgate. I played the non-progressive 9/6 Jacks machines they had then almost exclusively when I played video poker. On one of my trips, I saw that the royal on their bank of progressive machines was up to $5000.

Tempting, but probably not enough to turn the machines positive. And I don't normally play progressive video poker.

The progressive at the Westgate was higher on my next trip back to Las Vegas. I couldn't believe it had gotten that high. Not five figures, but $7000 or $8000. I didn't know the strategy changes one should make for a high progressive on this paytable, but that didn't matter because I also didn't know the strategy for the base paytable. I figured that I would hold three-card royals or better and handle two-card royals versus something else on a case-by-case basis.

I didn't hit this progressive. It was back down to a normal amount the next I came back.

I went to Bellagio on its first day of operation. For reasons I don't recall, I played a video poker progressive that day. I hit a royal for over $5000. After I got paid, I hightailed it to the buffet to get in before the price went up for dinner, even though I had so many hundred-dollar bills in my wallet that I couldn't fold it.

I don't play Triple Double Bonus. I looked into it a few years ago because it was the best-paying paytable at the casino closest to me, but the strategy was too complicated. I did play a few hands on it every once in a while to see if I could catch a big hand. I had won about $100 in free play in a promotion around Christmas many years ago. I decided to go for the gold and play it on quarter Triple Double Bonus.

A few hands in I got four aces. I expected the credit meter to stop climbing after $200, but it kept on going. I better take a closer look at this hand, I thought.

There it was. The fifth card was a deuce. A nice Christmas present from that casino that year.

According to the Wizard of Odds site, your Triple Double Bonus paytable pays back 97% with a $4000 royal. Using the calculator on the site to calculate the payback with a $10,000 royal, the long-term payback rises to 100.498%.

That might be lower than you expected. It was lower than I expected, but the progressive does have to overcome 3 percentage points of house edge just to reach breakeven.

A very rough guideline is that an increase of about 2000 credits in the royal yields an increase of about 1 percentage point in long-term payback.

I don't know how useful this calculation is. First, the increase in payback is temporary. Once someone hits the royal, the payback drops down to that of the base paytable and the expectation is negative again for a very long time. The long-term payback may be positive, but this situation is not going to exist into the long term.

Still, if you only play progressives when the long-term payback is over 100%, your long-term results should be positive, but it might take a long time because you're depending on royals to put you over the top.

Second, you have to use the property strategy to play at that payback. You can use the strategy calculator on the Wizard of Odds site to generate a strategy with the higher royal value.

If your goal is to snag that royal, long-term payback and strategy don't really matter.

Another winter Olympics is over. I have a new appreciation for curling. Now that there was less crowd noise, I could really understand what the players were saying -- at least when they were speaking English! The players have to know the physics of collisions and how the angle one rock hits another affects where they go.

The curlers also had to play chess, thinking two or three or even more moves ahead. And some of their shots were as good as a trick shot on a pool table.

I saw in the news that the band Heavy Young Heathens (Who?) is suing just about anyone associated with the Olympics over the use of their cover of House of the Rising Sun by Alexa Knierim and Brandon Frazier in their pairs short program. It's hard to believe that a pair that has been in skating as long as Knierim and Frazier have does not a team to ensure that they have the clearances needed for the music they use.

Also filed under Hard to Believe:

The Russians said that the reason Kamila Valieva, the Russian skater favored to win the gold medal in women's singles skating at the Olympics, tested positive for a banned substance at the end of last year was because of a mistake with her grandfather's medication.

Okay.... What condition does her grandfather have and how long has be been taking this medication?

You want to keep the grandfather's health data private? Then answer this.

What did she or the adults coaching her think she was taking?

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