Ask the Slot Expert: Understanding why some video poker players don't follow the strategy

In my column a few weeks ago, I wrote about advising my cousin that she probably shouldn't hold a suited Ace-10 when playing video poker. There may be a paytable for which the mathematically derived strategy says to hold the combo, but I've never come across one.

I came across a similar, but completely different, situation playing NSU yesterday. My choices for the hand I was dealt were suited King-Queen or unsuited King-Queen-10-9, an inside straight.

Somewhat surprisingly, a suited King-Queen falls pretty low on the list of combos to hold in a hand with no deuces. Suited King-Queen (and any two-card royal--King high) is, in fact, just above tossing the whole hand.

I say its ranking in the strategy is surprising because, coming in the Jacks or Better world, a suited King-Queen is not a bad hand. It falls in about the middle of the strategy rankings.

The reason it's a meh hand in NSU and a so-so hand in Jacks or Better is explained in the latter paytable family's name. A pair of Jacks or better is a paying hand. Not so in NSU.

Giving up my (long) shot at a royal by also holding the 10 and 9 reminded me of something I heard in a How to Play Video Poker video once. The presenter showed a hand and recommended holding the two-card royal. "We're here to hit the royal, right?" he said.

It wasn't the correct play in terms of expected value, but I think I see what he and my cousin were thinking. If I hold the partial royal and get it, I have a story to tell. Furthermore, if you're a casual player who plays a few hours a day for a few days a year, it doesn't really matter much what non-strategy you choose to follow. The luck of the draw has a greater effect on your results than your skill.

Another hand I was dealt was one that a casual player might play differently from the mathematical strategy. I was dealt a deuce and with the other cards I could have held either 3-of-a-kind or a 4-card double inside straight flush.

Ooh, I hate having to throw away paying combos, but in an NSU hand with one deuce, any 4-card straight flush beats holding 3-of-a-kind. I held the partial straight flush and got bupkis.

If I were a casual player, though, I could see why I might hold the 3-of-a-kind. If I wanted to brag to my friends about beating the machine, a sure thing might be more attractive than a chance at a larger payout. I may want to maximize my chances of winning something -- anything -- on a hand rather than maximizing my long-term return.

This thinking echoes what I wrote about in this column. Statistical decision making in video poker assumes that you will be in the game for the long run.

I'm in it for the long run, so I always hold the combination of cards with the highest expected value. To paraphrase and expand upon something Bob Dancer says, today's results don't matter. They're mainly the result of luck. Only the long-term result matters. It's mainly the result of skill.

If you're a casual player, I can see why you might hold a different set of cards than I would.

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