Ask the Slot Expert: Sometimes experience is a good teacher at video poker

A long time ago -- and now a long time ago for me can mean 20+ years -- Bob Dancer wrote an article about how experience can be a poor teacher for learning how to play a video poker hand. Sometimes you get a higher EV (Expected Value) by giving up a paying hand to go for a higher-paying hand that you or may not get. You give up a sure thing to go for the gold. Sometimes the odds of getting the gold are long. It can be hard to believe that giving up a small payout is better when time after time you end up with nothing instead of the bigger payday.

Here are some examples. I think they apply to most, if not all, paytables without wild cards.

You're dealt a 4-card royal. The fifth card gives you a high pair. Give up the high pair and go for the royal, even though you'll end up with nothing about half of the time.

Same 4-card royal, but this time the fifth card gives you a straight. Or a flush. Same advice. Discard the fifth card and cross your fingers. About half the time you end up with nothing, but the other half you get something and, 1 time out of 47, you get the royal.

If you were trying to learn the right way to play this hand by using your experience, you would probably think, When I don't hold the pat hand, half the time I end up with nothing. Sure, sometimes I end up with a better-paying hand, but those are few and far between. I'm as close to a royal as you can get, but it's not a sure thing. Why give up the sure thing?"

Experience isn't a good teacher when one of the choices involves a number of randomly chosen outcomes with different values.

Experience can be a good teacher for one aspect of playing video poker: bankroll. There are only two possible outcomes. Either you brought enough money to play for as long as you wanted to play or you didn't.

A few weeks ago, a reader asked How big a bankroll do I need for Triple Double Bonus video poker? I used an Excel spreadsheet called Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker to come up with some suggestions.

Shortly after my column posted, I received this follow-up:

Thank you for your comments regarding the slot bankroll needed. I think your calculations were very good when comparing what I have experienced.

I have been visiting casinos for over 40 years about four to six times per year. There are no casinos near where I live, so I usually fly to my destination. My visits are usually for three or four days (depending on time zone changes involved). My bankroll has increased with inflation over this period of time.

Thankfully I can never remember ending a casino visit with less than 10% of bankroll still in hand (plus all food-beverage-lodging comped and for the past several years, air fare more than replaced with free play & cash).

Most I have departed with is 3x bankroll and average is probably 30% of bankroll. Also, casino host relationship is extremely helpful, especially with casino player card benefit changes since Covid time.

Overall, like almost all players, I do not have a "pocket profit" but that is the cost for the time spent in relaxation, enjoyment and helping pay the casino's business expense.

You used your experiences to determine the bankroll you should bring and that number ended up close to what the math said. In this case, experience was a good teacher.

Maybe you don't always leave with more money than you brought, but if you compare your net with what you would have had to have spent to vacation somewhere where they wouldn't comp you and give you cash and free play, maybe you are coming out ahead.

If you would like to see more non-smoking areas on slot floors in Las Vegas, please sign my petition on change.org.

Send your slot and video poker questions to John Robison, Slot Expert™, at slotexpert@slotexpert.com.

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