Ask the Slot Expert: Rebutting an article about why slots are not random - Part 5

Over the past few weeks I've been rebutting statements in an article I found online about why the writer believes slot machines are not random. The article contains a disclaimer similar to the one you may see before a program about a controversial topic: "The opinions expressed in this program do not necessarily represent the opinions of the network or its sponsors."

...it's my opinion from my observations....

The trap the author falls into is using his observations to infer how slot machines work. As I wrote in a past column, the author's observations are consistent not only with his theory of non-random slot machine outcomes, but also with the actual truth of random slot machine outcomes.

And now for something completely different....

This week let's look at some statements in the article that I actually agree with -- at least partially.

Slot machines often display a series of spins where players appear to be only one symbol away from a win, leading them to believe that they almost won falsely. Slot games do not work cyclically, and slot machine jackpots don't become due.

The near miss effect was more obvious on the old reel-spinning machines. It was pretty clear that you had a near miss when two Double Diamond symbols landed on the payline followed by a Double Diamond above the payline on the third reel.

On today's video slots with five reels and multiple paylines, it's difficult to tell if a symbol just misses landing on a payline in a combination. The most obvious near miss on video slots is when you don't get enough symbols for a scatter pay.

Actually, near miss is a misnomer. If you're in an archery competition and one of your shots misses the bullseye by an inch, that's a near miss. Maybe you would have hit the bullseye if you had taken more time aiming.

On the slot, there was nothing that could have changed the outcome of that spin. The result determined by the RNG was Diamond-Diamond-Blank and nothing could alter that. As they say, a miss is as good as a mile.

I agree 100% with his last sentence. Slots do not operate on a predictable cycle and they are never due. (One could almost believe that he is saying that slots are random.)

Left to right paying slot machines are designed, so high-paying symbols are frequently on the 1st reel, slightly less frequent on the 2nd reel, less on the 3rd reel, less yet on the 4th reel, and very rarely on the last reel. Slot manufacturers use another trick to give you the feeling of possibly winning and missing out on the last couple of reels.

No problems with this assertion. I can't tell you have many times my favorite Quick Hit Blitz machine has played the crescendoing suspense music when the first reel is filled with red 7s, then the second reel, and the third -- and then the last two reels have bars and cherries and Quick Hit symbols. (I have gotten some screens filled with red 7s, though. Sweet!)

Have you ever been playing slot machines, for example, $1 a spin, and you get a reasonable payout win and wish you had bet $5 like you were a few minutes ago? Rest assured, had you been betting $5 a spin, the win would not have been five times as much as your $1 spin - the machine would not have been "ready" to pay out that amount then.

It's true that you almost certainly would not have won five times that reasonable payout had you continued playing $5 per spin. The RNG generates about 100 outcomes a second. Pressing the Spin button a fraction of a second earlier or later would have given you a different result.

When in a bonus game and, for example, you have to select three symbols from a group of symbols to reveal the bonus money, several free spins, or several free spins and the winning combination multiplier factor, "beneath" the symbols. Once you have made your choices and the selections are revealed, all the other symbols may be revealed as well - often with a better option than the ones you picked. Rest assured that had you picked the "better options"; you would still have made the same choices - So it's no use saying, "If only I had picked that symbol..." As you don't know what's "under" any symbol at the start of the bonus pick, the computer can, and does, calculate the number of free spins, etc., it is going to give you, and then reveals whatever it wants to "under" those symbols you both did and didn't choose. Nothing is ever "under" those symbols to pick from; the machine changes the icon picture to whatever its current calculation amount tells it to reward you.

Let's distinguish between a bonus round that reveals what you didn't pick and a bonus round that does not. A bonus that does not reveal the other choices keeps things hidden because it doesn't want you to see what was really happening.

Let's say you will win one of four jackpots in a bonus feature and you need to pick three matching symbols to win the corresponding jackpot. You choose from a field of 12, so it looks like each jackpot has three symbols on the field (3x4=12) and you have an equal chance of getting any of the jackpots.

Play this machine for a while and you find that you almost always get the mini or the minor jackpot. You may never get either of the top two jackpots.

We can learn from this experience. The chances of hitting one of the jackpots is not 1/4. Our experience after many, many plays is that we are much more likely to hit the lower jackpots.

If the machine revealed all of the choices at the end of the round, we would see that only one of the jackpots has more than two symbols on the screen. The RNG chose which jackpot you will win and it doesn't matter what order you pick in.

The help screen on this sort of machine will frequently say that player interaction during the bonus round is for entertainment purposes only.

Now, if it's perfectly okay for a machine to predetermine your bonus and keep choices hidden, why would it reveal the other choices if choosing one of them wouldn't have made a difference in the outcome? There is already a way to handle a predetermined bonus that is only a smidgen misleading at first glance. Why use a method that is categorically misleading?

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