Ask the Slot Expert: Is it my fault I leave the casino with an empty wallet?

Over the past few weeks, I've written about how I leave the casino with an empty wallet much more frequently than I used to. The machines haven't changed, so I've been blaming this run of bad luck on -- well -- a run of bad luck.

But maybe there's more going on here than I realized. Maybe I'm partly to blame. Maybe a change in the way I play makes it more likely that I'll leave the casino losing my session bankroll.

Casinos are close to me and there is always tomorrow. There's no reason for me to play marathon sessions. My usual game plan now is to bring $500 to the casino and play NSU Deuces with a goal of reaching $6000 in action. Losing $500 on $6000 action (8%) doesn't seem like too big an ask on a paytable with a long-term payback of 99.7%.

If my session stake is gone before I reach $6000, so be it. I'll be back in a few days.

If I reach $6000, I might keep playing as long as my credit meter doesn't plummet. I might set a new point goal as long as I have enough credits to reach it and then decide whether to play to another new point goal based on how many credits I have left now. In any case, quitting becomes much more likely if I'm able to reach $10,000 in action, my ultimate goal.

Why $10,000? No good reason. Only because that was the maximum amount of video poker action that Boyd would apply a point multiplier to in a prior version of its slot club. (And I've pretty much had my fill of playing after 2000 hands.)

How does this playing style make it more likely for me to go broke in a session? Let me count the ways.

One, I have a fairly low bankroll for the volatility of NSU. Henry Tamburin lists the variance (a measure of volatility) in an article contained in this post on Jean Scott's Las Vegas Advisor blog. Henry says the variance for 9/6 Jacks, my old favorite, is 19.51. The variance for NSU is 25.78, higher than 9/6 Jacks but well below the Bonus Poker games that have additional adjectives in their names. Henry puts NSU in the medium volatility category. Henry concludes that higher variance games require larger bankrolls to avoid going broke.

Two, I have a fairly aggressive point goal for my bankroll. I need only a 92% payback to achieve my point goal on $500. As I wrote before, that doesn't seem like too much to ask for from a paytable that pays back 99.7%.

Volatility, though, comes into play again. Henry also says that your short term results (and we are definitely in the short term shooting for about 1000-2000 hands) are more likely to be greater than or less than the long-term payback as variance rises. Put another way, higher variance means your short term results are less likely to be close to the long-term payback.

Three, I used to play with a point goal and no loss limit. I actually always had a loss limit -- either the money I had in my wallet or the value of my credit line -- but it was much higher than my current loss limit. I had the bankroll to see me through downswings and played through them. Furthermore, I usually played more hands in a session than I do now. The greater your sample size, the closer your results will be to the expected results.

Four, I may continue playing even after I reach my point goal. I may play another $100 in action if I have $100 or more left on my credit meter and keep doing that as long as I have the credits to reach my new point goal. I could have walked away with at least some of my bankroll if not for...

Five, if I have only a few hands left on my credit meter, I'll sometimes just play them off. I'm almost always playing on a point multiplier day, so the long-term return on a $5 bet is higher than cashing out the $5. Of course, that's also true no matter how many credits I have. The utility of $100 or more, however, is greater than that of a few sawbucks so I'll just drain a small credit meter.

And you never know, I might hit a wild royal or four deuces on the few hands I have left.

On Sunday, I thought I'd reach my ultimate goal of $10,000 in action after getting $4000 in action from $200. But then the machine turned on me and gave me only $1000 in action from the rest of my bankroll. I didn't reach my first point goal. Another bust session.

Today, I not only reached my initial goal of $6000, I also squeezed out another $400 in action before cashing out $200. I like round numbers.

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