Ask the Slot Expert: How big a bankroll do I need to play slots?

Question: Have been a reader of your column for many years. Enjoy reading your comments about the slot gaming world.

My question. I play slots with denomination of either 10 cents, 50 cents or $1 and average bet of $10 per spin. I play in house, stand alone multi-reel video slots with progressive jackpots.

Can you tell me what bankroll would be needed for 2 hour or 4 hour session? Would the amount needed be different depending on denomination played?

Answer: Thanks for the kind words.

Time on a slot or video poker machine is measured in plays, spins or hands, not ticks of the clock. The first WAG (wild-ass guess) I have to make is how quickly you play -- how many spins per hour you play, that is.

Here's an area where machines with bonus rounds give players a bit of break. Players don't have any money at risk while they're playing out a bonus. The bonus, in effect, is slowing down their play. Playing a bonus is much more entertaining and much easier to do than trying to pause for a moment between spins.

Video slots, in addition, can take longer to play out a spin than traditional reel-spinning slots. It can take longer to spin and stop five reels than three. A higher hit frequency also means that the machine will be paying out more frequently. Some spins, moreover, end with wins on multiple paylines and the enumeration of the wins can take a while, unless you press a button to end the drudgery.

Now, I have to apologize to the writer of last week's letter. I was skeptical that he could play so many hands of video poker per hour. Illustrating why scientists always back up gut feelings with hard data, I paid attention to how long it took me to play 2000 hands of NSU this past Sunday.

Even though it seemed like a long time, I played the hands in 2.5 hours, 800 hands/hour. That included brief breaks to be envious of the player near me that got a handpay and to watch some of the people walking by. I also took the occasional sip of my iced Caffe Latte, which I'm so glad is sold at my usual movie theater again. I can see popcorn and a Coke ICEE for brunch or lunch at late morning movie, but not for breakfast at a 9:30am showing. Please don't tell them about the bagel I had hidden in my pocket.

Slots always play more slowly than video poker, so let's guess at 500 spins per hour.

Denomination can matter because it can affect volatility. Most of the multi-denom machines I've played had fewer paylines at the buck and up denominations. Fewer paylines can mean higher volatility.

Volatility is the wildest WAG I have to make. Slot manufacturers don't give players the probabilities of hitting the various winning combinations, so there's no way players can calculate it.

Dunbar's Risk Analyzer (DRA) uses a Monte Carlo Simulation. Fortunately, we don't have to go to the French Riviera to run a Monte Carlo Simulation, but I bet it would be more fun there. There are many, many possible outcomes for playing a session of video poker, so a Monte Carlo Simulation can be used to play that session multiple times and get a feel for what is likely to happen. DRA plays video poker by using the probabilities of achieving each type of hand from royal down to nada to determine the result of a hand.

We don't have the probabilities for winning and losing spins on a slot machine.

Another input I need is the level of risk of running out of money you'll accept. You can have 0% chance of running out of money by bringing enough to fund every spin you want to play. The higher the risk you'll accept, the less money you need.

There sure are a lot of guesses and unknowns. I think you're guess about bankroll is as good as mine. Better, actually. You have real experience with the bankroll you bring and the games you like to play. If you find you're running out of money more often than you'd like, bring more money.

Nevertheless, let me make some WAGs about your bankroll requirements. I'll use 7/5 Jacks or Better as the paytable mainly because I have to choose something. Assuming 1000 spins for a two-hour session, I get a 7% risk of ruin (ROR) for a $1500 bankroll. A little less than 1 in 10 chance of running out of money before the two hours are up.

Now let's try playing for four hours, 2000 spins. That same $1500 now has a 43% chance of ruin. Bring a bit more, $2000, and RoR drops to 21%. Let's try double the two-hour bankroll, $3000. Now we run out of money about 1 in 100 sessions. You're probably willing to accept more risk than that. At $2500 I get the same 7% RoR as for $1500 for 1000 spins.

So, my estimates are $1500 for two hours and $2500 for four hours to have enough money to see you through about 93 out of 100 sessions. You can bring less if you don't mind going broke more often.

How do those numbers compare with your experiences?

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