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Ask the Slot Expert: Another look at video poker volatility

16 August 2023

I started writing last week's column with the theory that NSU Deuces is more volatile than 9/6 Jacks because 9/6 Jacks pays a push more frequently than NSU does and, moreover, 9/6 Jacks hit frequency is higher than NSU's hit frequency. When I gathered the data to prove these points, I discovered that they were -- well, wrong.

It's been years since I've played 9/6 Jacks, but my recollection is that I hit high pairs and two pairs frequently and those low-level payouts kept credits on my meter and me in the game. NSU, on the other hand, seems to have much longer streaks of losing hands. There are times when I put $100 into a dollar machine and need to feed the machine again barely more than 20 hands later.

I was sure that the probability of hitting a push on NSU was lower than on 9/6 Jacks. The numbers tell a different story.

Let's start with overall hit frequency. According to the Wizard of Odds site, the probability of a nothing hand in 9/6 Jacks is 0.545. The probability of a winning hand (of any value) is therefore 0.455.

The Wizard also calculates that the probability of a nothing hand in NSU is 0.557, so the probability of winning something is 0.443.

Okay, NSU doesn't hit as frequently as 9/6 Jacks, but the difference is only about 12 hands for every 1000.

Slot game designers increase the volatility of their games by making pushes and other low-paying hits less frequent and using the money not won on the lower rows of the paytable to make the combinations on the upper rows more likely. They can alter how frequently symbols land on the payline.

Video poker paytable designers don't have that luxury. They can't alter how frequently certain cards are dealt. The only thing they can alter is how much winning hands pay.

8/5 Bonus Poker is more volatile than 9/6 Jacks not because you hit a high pair less frequently, but because the paytable takes some of the payout on full house and flush and puts it on certain quads. 10/7 Double Bonus is more volatile because it demotes two pair to a push and uses the credits saved to fund payouts on the full house and flush and also certain quads.

The following tables show key statistics for 9/6 Jacks and NSU. Each table lists the paying hands for the paytable. Each row lists how much the hand pays, the probability of hitting the hand, the cumulative probability, the return for this hand (pays times probability), and the cumulative return.

9/6 Jacks
Cum Cum
Hand Pays Probability Probability Return Return
Jacks or Better 1    0.21458503    0.21458503    0.21458503    0.21458503
Two pair 2    0.12927890    0.34386393    0.25855780    0.47314283
3 of a kind 3    0.07444870    0.41831263    0.22334610    0.69648893
Straight 4    0.01122937    0.42954200    0.04491747    0.74140640
Flush 6    0.01101451    0.44055651    0.06608707    0.80749347
Full House 9    0.01151221    0.45206872    0.10360987    0.91110334
4 of a kind 25    0.00236255    0.45443127    0.05906364    0.97016698
Straight Flush 50    0.00010931    0.45454058    0.00546545    0.97563243
Royal Flush 800    0.00002476    0.45456534    0.01980661    0.99543904


NSU
Cum Cum
Hand Pays   Probability     Probability   Return Return
3 of a kind 1    0.267285    0.267285    0.267285    0.267285
Straight 2    0.057292    0.324577    0.114585    0.381870
Flush 3    0.020744    0.345321    0.062232    0.444102
4 of a kind 4    0.061055    0.406376    0.244218    0.688320
Full house 4    0.026118    0.432494    0.104473    0.792793
Straight flush 10    0.005130    0.437624    0.051304    0.844097
5 of a kind 16    0.003109    0.440733    0.049743    0.893840
Wild royal 25    0.001907    0.442640    0.047677    0.941517
4 deuces 200    0.000187    0.442827    0.037351    0.978868
Royal Flush 800    0.000023    0.442850    0.018411    0.997279


The first thing I noticed when I created these tables from the data on the Wizard's site is that I'm actually more likely to get a push on NSU than on 9/6 Jacks. So much for my gut feeling that hitting high pairs kept me in the game on 9/6 Jacks.

Things turn around when we consider the next highest-paying hand too. On 9/6 Jacks, the probability of hitting a high pair or two pair is 0.34 and those two hands account for 47 percentage points of the payback -- almost half on a third of the paying hands. The two lowest-paying hands on NSU account for only 38 points of the payback.

I refer to any hand that pays double digits, 10 or more credits, to be a premium hand. Looking at 9/6 Jacks, there's a probability of 0.45 to hit a non-premium and they account for 91 points of the total payback. The probability of hitting a non-premium hand on NSU is close, 0.43, but they account for only 79 points of the payback. You have to hit your share of straight flushes and quints to get up to 89 points of the payback.

They say that you'll have a rough time on 9/6 Jacks if you don't hit your share of full houses and flushes. They're the key hands to keep you from going bust in a session.

On NSU, the key hands are the mid-premium hands -- straight flush, 5 of a kind, and wild royal. If find that if I don't get my share of those hands, I run out of money before I reach my point goal.


If you would like to see more non-smoking areas on slot floors in Las Vegas, please sign my petition on change.org.

John Robison

John Robison is an expert on slot machines and how to play them. John is a slot and video poker columnist and has written for many of gaming’s leading publications. He holds a master's degree in computer science from the prestigious Stevens Institute of Technology.

You may hear John give his slot and video poker tips live on The Good Times Show, hosted by Rudi Schiffer and Mike Schiffer, which is broadcast from Memphis on KXIQ 1180AM Friday afternoon from from 2PM to 5PM Central Time. John is on the show from 4:30 to 5. You can listen to archives of the show on the web anytime.

Books by John Robison:

The Slot Expert's Guide to Playing Slots
John Robison
John Robison is an expert on slot machines and how to play them. John is a slot and video poker columnist and has written for many of gaming’s leading publications. He holds a master's degree in computer science from the prestigious Stevens Institute of Technology.

You may hear John give his slot and video poker tips live on The Good Times Show, hosted by Rudi Schiffer and Mike Schiffer, which is broadcast from Memphis on KXIQ 1180AM Friday afternoon from from 2PM to 5PM Central Time. John is on the show from 4:30 to 5. You can listen to archives of the show on the web anytime.

Books by John Robison:

The Slot Expert's Guide to Playing Slots