Are larger progressives more likely to hit?

John,

I was surprised to recently read where a so-called expert advised to play progressive video poker machines only when the jackpot is high because that is when they are "ready to go off." I did not think it mattered whether the jackpot was high or low. I was under the impression that the chances of hitting jackpot for five of a kind, for example, are the same on every hand. I could understand that, from a financial standpoint, it is better to hit on a larger jackpot but I did not think that the chances of hitting it are any better when the jackpot is large.

John, please enlighten me.

Thanks.

Dan

Dear Dan,

You are absolutely right on all counts.

Your chances for hitting the jackpot are the same on every hand — well, maybe not the same because some players adjust their strategies as the progressive climbs. Maybe a more accurate statement is that the electronic deck doesn't change with progressive; each card in the deck is always equally likely to be dealt. Machines are never "ready to go off."

The larger jackpot is financially better, but it is no more likely to hit than a lower jackpot, assuming players don't change their strategies.

Best of luck in and out of the casinos,
John

Send your slot and video poker questions to John Robison, Slot Expert, at slotexpert@comcast.net. Because of the volume of mail I receive, I regret that I can't reply to every question.