Casino City's Week 13 NFL Circa Million IV Pro Football Contest Picks

If the Thursday Night Football 24-10 win by Buffalo against New England at Gillette Stadium showed us anything it’s that as we know the cream always rises to the top when it comes to the NFL.

Despite sitting at 8-3 overall, the Bills entered the game 0-2 in the AFC East, and left with the win they desperately needed heading into the home stretch. There are a bunch of teams who need to make statements this weekend, including the Casino City Press Team, after a disappointing 2-3 record in Week 12 that dropped us to 30-27-1 for the season.

Let’s take a look at our picks for Week 13:

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Week 13 Contest Point Spreads

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— Circa Sports (@CircaSports) December 1, 2022

Cincinnati +2 over Kansas City
Any time we can get Joe "Cool" Burrow and the Bengals as an underdog, we have to get to the window, even if it's against perhaps the best team in football. Heck, if you had simply bet Cincinnati every week since this time last year you would be sitting on a mound of cash as the defending AFC Champs are now 16-3 against the spread in their last 19 games and have covered seven in a row as an underdog.

The Bengals beat KC twice last year, including an impressive comeback win in the AFC Championship, so we see no reason not to take the points here again, especially when you consider the Chiefs haven't covered a game in five weeks and are just 1-5 against the spread this season when facing teams with a winning record.

Patrick Mahomes has never beaten Joe Burrow pic.twitter.com/PuBFVj3wFE
— WINCINNATI (@WINCINNATI_) November 30, 2022

Atlanta +1 over Pittsburgh
We used the Steelers as a winner last week when they went to Indianapolis as a 2.5-point dog and won outright. We mentioned last week how profitable Pittsburgh has been as an underdog under Mike Tomlin, but this week we have any entirely different situation as they lay a point on the road. And not only are the Steelers playing a second straight road game, but they are doing so on a short week after playing Monday night.

The Falcons have covered four of six home games this season, including an outright win over San Francisco, and the two losses both came by a field goal, while the Steelers have covered just three of their last 10 road games. Not sure why Pittsburgh is favored here, even if it's just a measly point, so let's take the Falcons.

Miami +4 over San Francisco
If you love a good subplot to a game then this one is right up your alley! Dolphins’ rookie head coach Mike McDaniel heads to The Bay to face his mentor, fifth-year head coach Kyle Shanahan. To say these two have a history is an understatement as McDaniel and Shanahan spent 16 years on various coaching staffs prior to this season. As almost all new head coaches do, McDaniel took some of the 49ers’ coaches with him to Miami. Dolphins’ running back and former San Francisco player Raheem Mostert would love to stick it to his old team as the two sides didn’t part on a good note. Both teams run a similar offense as McDaniel took what he learned from Shanahan to Florida.

We could go on and on with subplots, including talking about how both teams the Dolphins and 49ers are riding five- and four-game win streaks, respectively. But we’ll stop rambling, as the kids say, because this one is going to go to the student McDaniel over the teacher Shanahan.

Mike McDaniel expressed gratitude for Kyle Shanahan and topped off his comments with a classic joke ??https://t.co/9NR480RYwj
— 49ers on NBCS (@NBCS49ers) November 29, 2022

Tennessee +4.5 over Philadelphia
Another week, and another look out for Titans’ running back Derrick Henry warning. The King, as he’s referred to, is coming off a very uncharacteristic performance as he only ran for 38 yards on 17 carries and no touchdowns last week in a loss against the Bengals. So as all royalty does when its crown is tarnished, he’s going to look to get back on this throne. This is not good news for the Eagles as they are allowing 131.5 rush yards over the last four games.

Tennessee is 5-1 against Philadelphia in their past six meetings, 8-1 against the spread in its past nine games this season, and 4-1 against the spread as an underdog over that same run. The numbers don’t lie, but again the biggest number to keep an eye out for in this game is 22, as in His Highness’ number.

Jacksonville -1 over Detroit
For years, hearing that the Jaguars are playing the Lions this weekend wouldn’t even move the interest meter. And if you only go by the fact that both squads sit at 4-7, you would still be like it’s Jacksonville and Detroit ho-hum. However, both of these teams are starting to show their rewards for picking at the top of the NFL Draft for several years and despite their records both teams are making each week must-watch games.

The Jaguars are led by former number one picks quarterback Trevor Lawrence (2021 NFL Draft) and linebacker Travon Walker (2022). Offensive tackle Penei Sewell (seventh pick of the 2021 NFL Draft) and defensive end Aidan Hutchinson (second pick, 2022) lead the way for the Lions.

Jacksonville is winless in 19 consecutive games against NFC teams, while Detroit is winless over the past 11 matchups against AFC teams. Something has to give this weekend, and it’s going to be the Jaguars who show the Lions which team is king of the jungle.

Week 12 Results: 2-3
Season Record: 30-27-1