The Parity-Hedge system, part 2

Frank:

Seriously, just because I forgot the odds on six, eight, nine and ten, does not mean I believe Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone!

I'm rolling on the floor laughing. Concerning your explanation of the Parity-Hedge..... WHHHHHATTTTTTTT? Where did you get that dribble about Star Trek?

Son, your name and your first book are specifically mentioned along with the Doey-Don't in the Parity-Hedge system. It is the ONLY thing that the Supersystem could possibly be. And since you were in your early twenties at the time, it is my belief that the "whiz kids" either told you about the Doey-Don't or that you told them.

I am rolling on the floor laughing....hell one of the kids is the Captain isn't he? Face it my friend, you are up to your eye-balls in the Parity-Hedge.

Thanks for the ridiculous answer...wink, wink, and your secret is safe with me.

In your book, a guy writes you about Binion's Horseshoe in Louisiana and how a dealer asked him not to play Doey-Don't or to vary one side without odds. Ah, the owner of that casino is Jack Binion...hello???? the son of the man that probably you owe your life to today.

I'm sure the dealers are told to watch for this system. Whether it was buried with Ted Binion's silver bars, or where it is today, thanks for the Star-Trek explanation!

And oh, I figured out that it is possible to play the Parity-Hedge from the Don't, just put up a few more dollars in laying the bet. And if you are betting 100-300 times odds the disadvantage of the 12 is easily solved by dividing the Doey-Don't by 30 and hollering for example one dollar on boxcars ( for a $30 bet). If the 12 shows the Don't is a tie and you are paid $30 ON THE TWELVE. Key here is to immediately chime in "Down on the 12," before the next roll. This is a small amount of insurance that you will easily make up for with odds.

I've been screwing with Craps for twenty years and I don't know why this is, but It seems when a series of 5 hands goes in Don't's favor, either 5-0, or 4-1, that the Don't will rule for the bulk of the next ten hands. Ahhhhh the possibilities! And one last thing, Don't refer to the Don't as being the Darkside. This undermines both your and anyone's intelligence that knows anything about gambling.

Craps is all about timing, and when it's time for 7 outs...it is foolish not to bet the Don't!

Steve

Dear Steve:

I answered your first letter as best as I could and I don't usually answer follow-up letters to me that are sarcastic or pompous, but it's a new year and I'll make an exception in your case.

As far as the Kennedy assassination, Gerald Posner would disagree with your sarcastic remark. Check this book out: http://www.amazon.com/Case-Closed-Harvey-Oswald-Assassination/dp/0679418253/ref=ed_oe_h. It postulates that Oswald acted alone.

You question the "dribble about Star Trek" and Quatloos? Go here and discover for yourself: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quatloo

The "doey-don't" of the Supersystem has nothing to do with the Parity-Hedge system. All evidence indicates that this Parity-Hedge system is a fraud, and the website that was going to give a full explanation of it in 2001 has failed to do so.

There were no "whiz kids," neither I nor the Captain has anything to do with this thing in any way, so go "wink, wink" all you want. There is no "secret" here at all. There was no Japanese businessman who was murdered and buried in the desert. No Binion who saved some whiz kid's life. You've fallen for a modern myth.

The doey-don't, or Supersystem, can be a pain in the neck for some dealers to handle and that probably explains why the dealer at the Horseshoe said what he said. If the player was not putting any odds up maybe this dealer, mistakenly, felt the bet didn't have a house edge. The fact is that the bet does have a house edge of about 1.4% on the Do and 1.4% on the Don't. It is a losing bet.

Now, your explanation of betting a 12 as a hedge is very poor judgment for someone who has been "screwing with craps for twenty years." The 12 wager comes in with a massive house edge of about 13.9%. That means for every $1 you bet on this Crazy Crapper bet, you will lose about 14 cents. That's a monstrously bad expectation. I wouldn't bet a single Quatloo on that wager, nor should you!

Sadly, you have fallen for the "Gamblers Quatloo," which is a belief in a system of play that cannot win because it is not true. The Don't appearing five out of five times, or four out of five times, is meaningless in a random game – totally meaningless. It has no predictive value.

How do you know it is time for 7-outs? The math says that the average is about 17% of the time. How do you know more or fewer than that will come in the next 10 rolls; 20 rolls; 100 rolls? You don't. You are caught in the "Gamblers Quatloo" insisting that randomness can be predicted. It can't.

Finally, I like the term "darkside" as it is a powerful term from Star Wars (you can look it up!) and indicates someone who is going against the "right" way to do things. So, sorry, I will keep using that term even if you think it "undermines" my intelligence to do so.

All the best in and out of the casinos!

Frank Scoblete