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Alan Krigman Gaming Guru - Page 59  The Long and Short of All-or-Nothing Gambles2 January 2002
A venerable school of gambling thought advocates betting an entire bankroll all at once, then leaving - win or lose. The annals of casino fact and fancy describe gamblers who've done it, big time. Usually "in the good old days," whenever they were. All-or-nothing bets aren't for everybody. ... (read more)
How Long Must You Play Before You Can Expect to Win?25 December 2001
Some folks patronize casinos to dabble. A couple of bucks at a machine, a few bets worth of buy-in at a table, and quit when they lose the money or score a hit. They know the laws of chance are against them, but are hoping to get lucky. Other people are more serious about their action. They not only show ... (read more)
By the Time Progressives Hit, They're Usually Bought and Paid for16 December 2001
The progressive jackpots at some machines and table games are among the gaming innovations that catapulted casinos to the top of the leisure and entertainment heap in America. They satisfy the public's lottery-fed fantasy of being within reach of riches. Yet, their workings remain mysteries to most solid citizens. ... (read more)
You Can't Rely on Averages when You're Dealing with Small Chances9 December 2001
When casino outcomes have high or moderate possibilities of occurrence, it doesn't take a Methuselah's age of action before actual frequencies home in on statistically expected averages. As an example, there's around 21.5 percent chance of ending with a high pair at jacks-or-better video poker, so in 1,000 tries you'd expect 215 of 'em and would almost surely get between 200 and 230. ... (read more)
How Many Cases Must You Count to Detect Bias or Preference?6 December 2001
What if you have a coin you suspect is biased? That is, chances may not be precisely 50-50 a flip will yield heads or tails. You might care to know how many times you'd have to toss the coin and count results before you'd be confident that measured frequencies were acceptably close to the true but unknown probabilities. ... (read more)
A Million-to-One Odds and that One Player in a Million26 November 2001
Ever have a casino visit when nothing goes right? When you wonder where you got the idea that gambling was fun? When you figured the law of averages said things had to improve, but they didn't? My chum, Charlie, was mewling about this very state of affairs a few weeks ago, as I found him meandering aimlessly down the video poker aisles of The Beachcomber. ... (read more)
Blackjack Decisions Aren't Always as Clean Cut as You've Been Told20 November 2001
Basic Strategy in blackjack is the set of decisions yielding the most expected gain or least expected loss for each player hand and dealer up-card. Some of the rules reflect fine distinctions. That is, "expectations" for the alternatives are nearly equal. These close calls are precisely the circumstances under which even seasoned solid citizens are likeliest to defy the dogma. ... (read more)
How to Use Expected Value to Weigh Craps Options12 November 2001
There's probably no scientific study of the matter. But the lion's share of the money wagered at craps is likely on Place bets. Certainly, after the come-out. For the uninitiated, these are bets on four, five, six, eight, nine, or 10. They win if the number hits and lose if the seven rears its ugly head. ... (read more)
Don't Make the Mistake of Actually Expecting the Expected6 November 2001
Gambling gurus glibly expound on expected incidents of events. They're using a narrowly defined statistical concept. It involves averages, not something you should literally expect to happen. As an example, say you flip a fair coin 10 times. Statistically, expectation is to get five heads and five tails. ... (read more)
Is Cleverness at Craps Good, Bad, or Indifferent?29 October 2001
Some craps players delight in the cleverness of obscure bets. Not that the game isn't obscure enough to most folks already. They do it for a host of reasons, but one thing's for sure. Solid citizens can't combine or sequence wagers in a negative expectation game to surmount house advantage. A few techniques trim the edge, but none obliterate or negate it. ... (read more)
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