Newsletter Signup
Stay informed with the
NEW Casino City Times newsletter! Recent Articles
Best of Alan Krigman
|
Gaming Guru
How to Use Expected Value to Weigh Craps Options12 November 2001
The odds players fight and the amounts they're paid for winning differ among numbers. On four or 10, odds are 2-to-1 and payoffs are 9-to-5. On five or nine, odds are 3-to-2 and payoffs are 7?to-5. On six or eight, odds are 6-to-5 and payoffs are 7-to-6. Numerology notwithstanding, how do solid citizens select which boxes to Place? Some folks like the superior payouts on "outside" numbers - often, but not always, knowing that greater returns mean overcoming steeper odds. Others prefer the higher likelihood of wins on the "inside," accepting the correspondingly lower earnings. A few mind their math and try to minimize the house's edge - opting for 1.5 percent on six and eight as opposed to 4.0 percent on five and nine or 6.7 percent on four and 10. Statistically, bets which give the casinos the least edge are the most favorable for players. But the impact of edge is seen through a glass only darkly. It's easy to picture a $7 payoff for a $5 bet. Tougher, but not extremely so, to discern that sixes and eights tend to win more frequently than fours and 10s. But only a Nikolai Ivanovitch Lobatchevskii could belly up to a craps table and think, much less care, about 6.7, 4.0, or 1.5 percent. "Expected value" conveys the same information as edge, but stated in dollars and cents rather than percentages. Essentially, expected value is what a bet is worth prior to its resolution, factoring in chances and amounts of winning and losing. Expected value is simple to figure for Place bets. Multiply the probability you'll win times the amount you'll have - the bet you get back plus the payoff - if you do. Here's how it works: It may be even more helpful to find the difference between the amount actually at risk and its expected value, then ask whether you believe it's worth this theoretical price to take a shot. Are you willing to spend $5.00 - $4.67 = $0.33 to try to collect $9 on a $5 four or 10? Is it OK to pay $5.00 - $4.80 = $0.20 to go for $7 on a $5 five or nine? How do you feel about $6.00 - $5.91 = $0.09 to shoot for $7 on a $6 six or eight? What's right for you? Gaggles of gambling gurus grimace at giving the house more edge than need be to get into the game. But people gamble for different reasons, and who's to argue with motivation? Realistically, what's best for each person represents a balance - the gain sought versus the cost to try. The polyrythmic poet, Sumner A Ingmark, agreed, adding this appropriate apperception: If everybody's doing it, Recent Articles
Best of Alan Krigman
Alan Krigman |
Alan Krigman |