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Alan Krigman Gaming Guru - Page 38  How Skewness in Gambling Affects Your Session Hopes and Fears18 January 2006
To casinos, edge should be the only intrinsic statistical parameter of games that
matters. Because, with enough bets of roughly comparable amounts over extended
periods, averages prevail and the bosses end up winning close to the percentage
of the gross wager the math predicts players will lose.
... (read more)
How Does Edge Affect Expected Bankroll Highs and Lows11 January 2006
The house advantage or edge in casino gambling arises because the payoff on a
bet is somewhat less than the odds which must be overcome to win. When you make
a Place bet on the five at craps, for instance, you're fighting odds of 6-to-4
but only get paid in the proportion of 7-to-5. On the basis of ... (read more)
Equal Edge Doesn't Make Games Equivalent4 January 2006
Casino gambling is rife with misconceptions and myths about the edge the house
has on every bet. These range from the notion that edge is why the joints always
clean everyone out, to the idea that it's the only thing distinguishing one game
from the next. On an outlying tangent there's also the ... (read more)
Right May Be Good, but Who's To Say Wrong Is Bad?28 December 2005
Not so very long ago, gambling information was hard to find. Newspaper or magazine articles, books, and like sources of wagering wisdom were rare. Of those that did exist, the few with even a dab of dependability tended to be abstruse while the rest ranged from useless to dangerous. Worse, going back 25 or ... (read more)
The Ups and Downs of Progressive Betting.21 December 2005
Many table games have 1-to-1 or other relatively low payoff ratios, and correspondingly close to 50-50 chances of success on any coup. But don't plan to get rich in these games betting $5, $10, or $25 round after round -- winning or losing like amounts and waiting for a miracle extended run of hits to break the bank. ... (read more)
Hedges in Roulette Are Exceptions that Challenge the Rule.14 December 2005
Hedging bets in the casino, as in the real world, generally comes at a price. This, because the insurance or protection is an expense that rarely yields a return, and/or has a high cost premium. In casino gambling, the premium is typically a greater house advantage on the total at risk with the hedge than on the same amount bet entirely on the primary proposition. ... (read more)
Are Hedges in Craps as Bad as the Experts Say, or Can They Work?7 December 2005
Every gambling know-it-all knows that hedges in craps are sucker bets. But, legions of craps buffs swear by them anyway.
Perhaps the most common example involves "protecting" something like $10 on the Pass line with $1 on Any Craps during come-out rolls. The idea is that if the dice show a ... (read more)
Twelve versus Two-up in Blackjack: More is Sometimes Less.30 November 2005
Don't you really hate it in blackjack when you get a 12 versus a dealer's two-up? Still, it's not the worst hand you can get. Played "by the book," hitting the 12, the outcome balances out to a loss of just over $0.25 per dollar bet. Lots of player-dealer combinations are far more taxing. For instance, a 16 versus nine, 10, or ace is projected to cost above $0.50 on the dollar. ... (read more)
Alternate Bets with Equal Edge May Perform Differently.23 November 2005
Picture a game like roulette but with 34 outcomes -- 0, 00, and 1 through 32. And think about two types of bets. Straight-up, on single numbers, paying 31-to-1; the likelihood of winning is 2.94 percent (one out of 34). Outside, for instance odd values between 1 and 32, paying 1-to-1 and losing on 0 or 00 as well as on even numbers; prospects of winning are 47.0 percent (16 out of 34). ... (read more)
Why Your Gambling Goals May Defy What the Math Says To Expect.16 November 2005
In baccarat, considering only rounds that don't tie, the probabilities of winning are 49.3 percent for Player and 50.7 percent for Banker. This is sometimes expressed as "Player should (or is expected to) win 493 out of every thousand hands, and Banker should (or is expected to) win 507 out of a thousand."
But don't expect what the math says you should. ... (read more)
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