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Social buzz was poor predictor of Oscar winners compared with gambling sites23 February 2015VARIETY reports this morning that, leading up to Sunday night’s 87th Annual Academy Awards, Facebook and Twitter — along with third-party social analysis researchers Adobe, Hootsuite and Way to Blue — issued predictions of Oscar winners based on digital buzz, but of their 29 predictions for the six major categories (Twitter didn’t have a pick for best director), the forecasts got only 13 correct. By contrast, states VARIETY, betting sites, based on their pre-Oscars odds, were far more reliable. PredictWise, which aggregates info from U.K.-based Betfair, Hollywood Stock Exchange and other “prediction markets,” correctly predicted 20 of 24 total Oscars winners, including for the major categories. |