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Caesars Sportsbook posts odds for Super Bowl LVI

31 January 2022

(PRESS RELEASE) -- The matchup for Super Bowl LVI is set. The NFL will crown a new Super Bowl champion for a 17th consecutive season when the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals square off at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles on Sunday, 13 February. Caesars Sportsbook has posted its odds for the 285th and most important game of the 2021 NFL campaign. The Rams opened as 3.5-point favorites over the Bengals before moving to -4. On the money line, the Rams are -185 and the Bengals are +175. The total for the game is 50 points. Caesars Sportsbook’s extensive prop menu will be available later in the week, giving bettors over 2,000 exciting ways to wager on the game.

“We opened it at Rams -3.5 and quickly moved to 4,” said Craig Mucklow, Caesars Sportsbook VP of Trading. “The biggest factor is the Rams have been there recently. Sean McVay has been there before. They lost to the Patriots three years ago but will learn from that experience. They are all-in this year as they proved by the trades that they made. Although, we wrote off Joe Burrow against the Chiefs, we are not going to write him off again because that kid is unfazed by anything that happens. But the Rams’ experience and their defense puts the line at 4. If there is much movement, it would likely be tonight, assuming there no major health issues that would drastically impact the line. It will sell on Monday. We already took $180,000 on the Rams money line, so we moved off that. After tomorrow, I don’t think it will move, at least not because of money anyway.”

This is poised to be the 13th straight Super Bowl with the favorite laying fewer than 7 points, extending the longest string in Super Bowl history. The next-longest was a nine-year run from Super Bowls V to XIII (1970-78 seasons). If the total holds at 50 points until kickoff, it would mark the fourth straight Super Bowl that it is 50 or greater. Each of the last three Super Bowls has gone Under the total.

“What will happen is the public will bet the dog – the Bengals – on the money line, the Rams on the spread and they’ll bet the Over,” said Mucklow. “So, if the Rams cover and the game goes Over, it’s the public’s Super Bowl. We want a close, competitive game. The last thing we want is a blowout because it spoils the in-play. With close games, the market lives longer. People can bet on them as well and everybody’s ticket is alive. It makes it more fun. We would prefer a low-scoring, competitive game.”

Recent Super Bowls have turned into dog shows. Underdogs are 8-6 straight up and 9-5 against the spread in the last 14 Super Bowls. That’s the most outright wins for underdogs over a 14-game span in Super Bowl history. In all 55 previous Super Bowls, underdogs are 26-27-2 ATS with 20 outright victories. Each of the last 12 Super Bowl champions covered the spread. The last team to win and not cover was the Pittsburgh Steelers, who beat the Arizona Cardinals by four points (27-23) as 7-point favorites in Super Bowl XLIII (Feb. 1, 2009). Although the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defeated the Kansas City Chiefs last February, AFC teams are 6-3 SU and ATS in the last nine Super Bowls.

To begin the season, the Rams were +1400 to win the Super Bowl, tying for the fourth-lowest odds with the San Francisco 49ers, Green Bay Packers and Baltimore Ravens. Those odds dropped as low as +650 after a Week 8 win over the Texans and then rose to a season-long +1300 after a three-game losing skid in November. Los Angeles entered the postseason at +1000.

Not much was expected this season from the Bengals, who began Week 1 at 125/1 to win the Super Bowl, tying the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets for the third-longest odds at the time (Detroit Lions were 200/1 and Houston Texans were 250/1). The last team with 125/1 or greater preseason odds to make it to the Super Bowl was the 1999 St. Louis Rams at 150/1. Kurt Warner led that Rams squad to a championship in his second NFL season, something Joe Burrow is trying to do.

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