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Gaming Guru
You still lose, just less often9 April 1999
Dear Mark,
You're right, Scott, eights against a 10
is a phantasmal hand that stalks most players like Marley's ghost. But fallacious logic tells you that splitting this hand creates two losers. Seems every time you split those eights you get, at best, two 10s. Then the dealer always has a nine or 10 in the hole, and bang, the jingling you hear is not Marley's forged chains but all your money falling into the dealer's tray.
So what happens to the average player? He
starts deviating from basic strategy because FEAR sets in. The FEAR is
actually False Evidence Appearing Real. FEAR
camouflages the logic of computer studies. But according to basic
strategy, the proper move is to split 8s if the game you're playing
doesn't allow surrender. Why? Because you will lose more money in the
long run if you hit instead of splitting. Mathematically, when you just
hit the hand, you will lose $51 for every $100 wagered. However, if you
split, you will lose $44 for every $100 bet. A seven dollar difference
for every hundred dollars wagered.
Dear Mark,
Dear Mark, Susan, by using a simple mathematical formula, I will prove that by playing smart, your play will generally outperform your brother's. Let's first analyze your action, Susan. A pass line bet, with no odds, has a house advantage of 1.4%. With a $5 wager and 50 playing decisions per hour, your theoretical loss (all bets lose over time) is $5 X 50 X 0.014, or $3.50 per hour. Relatively cheap entertainment. In comparison, your brother's bet, the hard six or eight, has a house advantage of 9.1%. The damage to his bankroll would be $5 X 50 X 0.091, or $22.75 in the same amount of time. Multiply that by 15 hours of play and you've got a sniveling, unhappy camper with a long car ride home.
Sibling rivalry aside, glad to see you're
reforming your play. Now let's convert the blockhead. Recent Articles
Mark Pilarski |
Mark Pilarski |