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Downright lethal vs. pretty good
3 November 2003
By Mark Pilarski
Dear Mark,
Please explain what you mean by "winning progressive"
betting? You mentioned it in a column without an explanation.
Does it differ from doubling your bet after each loss? I play
in Atlantic City, generally blackjack (I'm relatively new to the
game), and $10 a hand (hard on weekends to find anything lower).
Keith B.
The latter part of your question,
Keith, describes the "Martingale system," an historic
name for doubling up after every loss. In essence, you, the gambler,
double your previous bet (after a loss) leaning on the statistical
certainty that sooner or later you're bound to win. Sounds great,
Right?
MID-TERM QUIZ: Why is it the worst money management system you
can use? Read on.
Far too many players believe the Martingale system is foolproof
because you have to win eventually. The three problems with this
money management system are: 1) you do not have an inexhaustible
bankroll, 2) the casino owns the bank and sets the rules — like
the table limit, and 3) your hourly wage if you win could be something
like $0.01.
Let me show you, Keith, how fatal this form of wagering can be.
You bet $10 and lose, then $20 to recoup that loss. Then $40,
$80, $160, $320, $640, $1,280, $2,560 and finally $5,120. You
have just invested $10,230 to get your $10 back. And let us not
forget, Keith, "the Donald" (Trump) might have his $10
games set with table limits of $500. A string of six defeats and
you're up against the table limit-maxxed out, as they say. On
the bright side, they'll probably say; "Thanks, Keith, and
have a beer on us."
Ever met a gambler who has not lost six, eight or even 10 hands
in a row? I haven't. That 10 bucks could buy a first class bandanna
for wiping the sweat from your forehead.
Horsemen sometimes use a Martingale bit to control a fractious
horse; each twitch of the reins doubles the discomfort in the
horse's mouth. There may be a connection — don't know, seems likely.
The far superior "Winning Progressive" betting method
goes like this:
You set a predetermined percentage increase to follow any winning
bet, and pull in your horns after losses. Example? OK. On the
advice of my brilliant better half, I increase the bet that follows
any winning bet except the first by 50%: First $10 bet wins, next
bet also for $10 wins, and now we're off on the 50% gallop: $15,
$22, $33, $50, $75 etc., then drop to the table minimum — "flat
betting" — after every loss.
Side note here: Many players increase their bets after a win by
50% after the first win. I just happen to be a little more conservative
with my hard-earned money — actually, only when my wife is standing
next to me — and wait out the second win before plunging.
Either way, Keith, a winning progressive method of betting, will
minimize your losses and usually protect your winnings.
Gambling quote of the week: "When you enter a casino, remember
that you are entering a place of business run by very shrewd business
people who understand human emotions."-Henry Tamburin

As a recognized authority on casino gambling, Mark Pilarski survived 18 years in the casino trenches, working for seven different casinos. Mark now writes a nationally syndicated gambling column, is a university lecturer, author, reviewer and contributing editor for numerous gaming periodicals, and is the creator of the best-selling, award-winning audiocassette series on casino gambling, Hooked on Winning.
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As a recognized authority on casino gambling, Mark Pilarski survived 18 years in the casino trenches, working for seven different casinos. Mark now writes a nationally syndicated gambling column, is a university lecturer, author, reviewer and contributing editor for numerous gaming periodicals, and is the creator of the best-selling, award-winning audiocassette series on casino gambling, Hooked on Winning.
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