Quicktakes - The month's trends in a glance - May 2004

A robust recovery driven by productivity and tax cuts puts the US economy on track for growth of 4.7 percent this year and 3.7 percent next, the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) reported. The figure for this year shows a significant 0.5-point increase from the growth being forecast by the OECD six months ago in November when it penciled in growth of 4.2 percent. However its latest forecast for 2005 has been shaved from 3.8 percent. "The expansion is now firmly established across most sectors of the economy, helped by continued stimulus from fiscal and monetary policies", the OECD reported. AFP, Yahoo Finance, 5-11-04

Stocks plunged on persistent interest rate worries Monday, sending the Dow Jones Industrials below 10,000 for the first time since December. Wall Street suffered its third straight day of heavy selling, gathering momentum in this latest decline from steep losses on markets around the world. Associated Press, USA Today, 5-11-04

…all the major indices posted weekly gains for the first time in a month. The Dow added 2.2%, snapping a five-week losing streak and resting safely back above its 10,000-mark. The S&P broke a four-week losing streak, up 2.4%, and the Nasdaq embarked on a two-week winning streak, up 3.9%. In May, the S&P added 1.2% and the Nasdaq advanced 3.5%, while the Dow suffered its third losing month in a row, down 0.4%. The S&P remains the only major stock index that holds gains in 2004. Nat Worden, The Street.com,
5-28-04

Gaming stocks, after enduring a month-long selling binge in which average prices skidded more than 15 percent, rallied in the last two weeks of May. Gaming analysts called the sell-off and price drop a midcourse correction, although they remained cautious about gaming stocks' fortunes in the second half of 2004. …Gaming stocks tend to outperform broad market trends when prices are rising and often under perform the market when prices are sinking in a short-term market adjustment. The Applied Analysis Gaming Index, a weighted average of local gaming stocks, dropped in May for the first time since February 2003…index closed at 245.01 in May, down 23.7 points, or 8.8 percent, compared with April. The index still stood 57 percent above the 155.79 it hit a year earlier. Brian Gordon, spokesman for Applied Analysis, a Las Vegas-based financial consulting firm, warned, however, that one month does not make a trend. Rod Smith, Gaming Wire, Las Vegas Review-Journal, 5-29-04

The stock market may not have been kind to gaming stocks in May, but according to the American Gaming Association's latest survey, gamblers have been kinder. 53 million people went to a casino in 2003 accounting for 310 million trips, generating $27 billion in gaming revenue. Gaming it seems is second in consumer spending to fishing; how did I miss that?

In its annual survey of casino revenue, visitation and demographics, the American Gaming Association trade group found that 53.4 million people visited U.S. gambling halls in 2003, a jump of about 2 million from the year before. Bettors made a total of 310 million trips to the nation's 443 commercial casinos, generating about $27 billion worth of gross gambling revenue. That is up 2 percent from 2002, but more than double the figure 10 years ago. While that is less than the $41.5 billion Americans spent on fishing, it tops the $23.8 billion spent on DVD/VHS rentals and sales, the $10.3 billion shelled out at amusement parks and the $9.5 billion dropped at the movie box office. Plus, the $27 billion figure does not include money spent on hotel rooms, meals and entertainment -- a substantial and growing piece of the industry pie. Nevada earned its crown as the king of gambling markets, with $9.6 billion in gross gaming revenues, followed by New Jersey at $4.5 billion, Mississippi's $2.7 billion and Indiana's $2.2 billion. Louisiana, with $2 billion, rounded out the top five. William Spain, Investor's Business Daily, 5-27-04

The stock market currently sees a couple of things that may cause it heartburn: war, gas prices and economic growth. Economic growth? You have to be kidding. No, it seems too much growth portends inflation and as a result, Alan and his band of brothers would raise interest rates and harm corporate profits.

Stock traders were rattled by Friday's employment report…Investors feared the news would prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates as early as next month. …"Long-term, the markets still look at corporate fundamentals, earnings, that sort of thing. But we do have some inflation and interest rate fears in play which could keep things lower, at least for now", said Stuart Freeman, chief equity strategist for A.G. Edwards & Sons. Associated Press, USA Today, 5-11-04

Analysts said investors may have interpreted a new report on consumer confidence Tuesday as a sign that economic growth is moderating. That helps ease worries about inflation and seed hopes of strong, consistent corporate profits in coming months, they said. "The market is a lot more receptive to a lessening of growth as opposed to an acceleration of growth", said Ned Riley, Chief Investment Strategist at State Street Global Advisors. Adam Geller, Associated Press, Salt Lake City Tribune, 5-26-04

Gas prices are certainly up, over twenty-five percent from last year and that is bound to have an impact on gaming at some point. Increased cost of travel will eventually either reduce the amount of money people have to spend in a casino or reduce the number of trips they take. Airlines are certainly going to suffer from increased operating costs, if not from reduced travel. In the short term, the American Automobile Association believes that travel both by car and air will increase in 2004 as compared to 2003.

A year ago, the average gas price per gallon was $1.50, which means that prices are nearly 50 cents higher per gallon, according to AAA Kansas. Prices also have gone up dramatically in the last month. Since mid-April, prices have gone up 19.6 cents per gallon. Right now, the average is $1.98 per gallon. Jennifer Barten, Garden City Telegram,
5-29-04

Crude oil futures rose for the first time in four sessions amid concern about terror attacks in the Middle East and consuming countries over the U.S. Memorial Day holiday. Attacks on oil facilities in Iraq and Saudi Arabia have bolstered prices several times in the last two months. Terrorism concern has grown as U.S. gasoline supplies lag year-earlier levels before the peak demand summer months. Refineries, pipelines and other facilities are vulnerable to attack. The futures prices have translated into worldwide increases in the price of gasoline this year. Prices are up 30 percent in the United States and 5 to 7 percent in Europe. Bloomberg News, Detroit Free Press, 5-29-04

This year, Northwest is likely to spend $400 million to $500 million more on jet fuel, or close to $1.7 billion compared with $1.2 billion in 2003 because of higher oil prices and increased passenger volumes. "At $41 a barrel, it is pretty ugly", …The International Air Transport Association, a Geneva, Switzerland-based trade organization representing more than 270 airlines, said in a statement Thursday that fuel prices are 55 percent higher than a year ago. "This could add between $8 billion and $12 billion to our annual fuel bill and threatens to strangle our modest projected return to profitability", the organization said. Rajiv Vyas, Detroit Free Press, 5-28-04

Harrah's, anticipating something other than the rosy predictions of the AAA, introduced a program to overcome some of the impact of price increases and using the opportunity to strengthen their relationship with Total Reward club members. With a customer base of over 25 million, the program might be expensive, but it could also give Harrah's a serious edge over the competition if prices continue to increase.

Even with the gas prices up, AAA predicts that nearly 30.9 million travelers, a record number, will vacation by car this year. That number is up 3.4 percent from last year. Also according to the AAA, not only will there be an increase in people traveling by car but also by airplane. They are estimating that 4.1 million will fly this year, which is up 5.3 percent from last year. Jennifer Barten, Garden City Telegram, 5-29-04

Responding to soaring gas prices in recent weeks, Harrah's Entertainment Inc. has begun a program that will offer free gas cards to members of its Total Rewards slot club loyalty program. The offer is part of the company's revamped Total Rewards program, introduced last summer, that gives players higher-end freebies as well as a greater array of comps than the traditional steak dinners, free shows and other perks handed out to repeat customers, Harrah's spokesman David Strow said. Some of those perks include golf clubs, watches and big-screen television sets. Harrah's officials have added gas cards from oil companies including Shell and Sunoco to that list. Las Vegas Sun, 5-28-04

Not all operators were created equal; Donald Trump has been a star on television, in the media and sometimes on Wall Street. This month Trump is not a star on Wall Street, though he promises to be better, but he remains in the hunt for licenses in other locations. His name surfaced in a Congressional hearing, not often a good thing and as a result it does not look like he is going to be a star in Washington either. One of his old school alums has had a slightly more consistent career. Steve Wynn has rarely been a star in the media and has never had his own TV program, but he does manage to make money in the casino business. This month before the doors even open on his newest Las Vegas venture, Wynn announced an expansion. One final thought on stars, Trump stock is trading ($2) at about 7 percent of its high in 1997; Wynn's is trading ($40) at three times the initial price.

Donald Trump's ailing casino empire skipped a $73.1 million bond payment Monday amid rumors of an imminent bankruptcy filing. Allowing the deadline to pass without issuing payment was not an unexpected move, as Trump Hotels & Casino Resorts struggles to manage $1.8 billion in debt. But company officials restated their guarantee Monday afternoon that the massive interest bill would be paid in full before the end of the month long grace period. "We intend to make the payment by May 30, as we've said all along. I think things are very constructive right now", Trump Hotels Executive Vice President Scott Butera said. J. Staas Haught, Press of Atlantic City, 5-4-04

Donald Trump and other major casino investors have quietly spent tens of millions of dollars to help Indian groups in Connecticut finance campaigns aimed at winning federal recognition as Indian tribes, according to testimony on Wednesday before a House committee. The disclosure, made before the House Committee on Government Reform, gets to the heart of a major concern of critics who say private investors like Mr. Trump are bankrolling the efforts of would-be tribes in the hopes of grabbing a share of the Indian gambling industry. Federal tribal recognition allows Indian tribes to build casinos. Raymond Hernandez, New York Times, 5-6-04

Trump Hotels did finally make the interest payment, but apparently it is too hot in the kitchen and the "Art of the Deal" guy is handing off the tough negotiating with bondholders to an apprentice as the Donald moves to negotiating with a talent agency.

The reality TV show "The Apprentice" piqued the public's interest in everything from Donald Trump's hair (he isn't bald under there) to his long-troubled casino company, which saw its stock soar along with the ratings of the television show, even as its luck turned bad. Now, its fate is in the hands of a sort of anti-Trump: Scott Butera, the Executive Vice President of Trump Hotels & Casino Resorts. As the 57-year-old Trump focuses on real estate and his entertainment career -- he recently signed with Hollywood's Creative Artists Agency -- he's depending on Butera to extract better terms from angry bondholders and restructure the company, which is loaded down with $1.8 billion in junk-rated debt and has been hurt by new competition in Atlantic City, N.J. Christina Binkley, Wall Street Journal, 5-29-04

The only announcements from Wynn are concerned with construction updates and new financing to fund additions to as yet unopened resorts in Las Vegas and Macau. Hardly star material, but it does make for increased stock prices.

Wynn Resorts Monday announced plans for a $198 million expansion of Wynn Las Vegas, just under a year before the $2.4 billion mega-resort's planned opening. Deutsche Bank analyst Marc Falcone called the announcement a positive surprise for Wynn investors. "This certainly underscores the confidence the banks have in the current project -- allowing (Las Vegas developer Steve Wynn) to move quickly into Phase II -- and it's also a signal of the underlying trends that are so strong in Las Vegas", he said. Highlights of the expansion include demolition of the remaining structures of the former Desert Inn to prepare for a future Phase II expansion that will include an additional casino, another hotel tower and related amenities on the site, according to a statement from Wynn Resorts. The $198 million project announced Monday also will include expanded parking facilities for Wynn Las Vegas; an additional showroom; 18 additional fairway villas adjacent to the golf course; and improvements and refinements to the design of Wynn Las Vegas. Rod Smith, Gaming Wire, Las Vegas Review-Journal, 5-4-04

Wynn Resorts Ltd…said in filing with regulators that it had as of March 31 spent $1.3 billion of the total project cost of its Wynn Las Vegas hotel-casino. In the filing, the company said it plans to spend another $1.2 billion on development and construction for the resort, although, it added, any delays or change orders could substantially increase costs. Wynn Resorts said public areas, including the casino, are in various stages of construction. Las Vegas Review-Journal, 5-7-04

Wynn Resorts Ltd. of Las Vegas will attempt to raise $268.1 million to help fund construction of a casino in Macau and for other purposes with the offering of 7 million shares of common stock, the company announced today. Las Vegas Sun, 5-7-04

It is easy to see why Steve Wynn is eager to open a casino in Macau, the former Portuguese colony under the jurisdiction of China. Sheldon Adelson opened his casino in Macau this month and the reports are nothing short of amazing. Adelson, not content with one casino is working on a "Macau Strip" with 20 or more other casinos, hotels, retail and convention business just like Vegas.

Tens of thousands of people turned up in Macau for the first day of its new glitzy Las Vegas-style casino. Minor scuffles broke out as security officers and the police contained the crowd, eager to get in. …a new player in town - The Sands, owned by American gaming mogul, Sheldon Adelson. Roland Lim, Channel NewsAsia's, 5-18-04

Las Vegas Sands Inc has signed letters of intent with the global hotel chains Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide, Marriott International, Four Seasons Hotels, Hard Rock International and InterContinental Hotels Group for each company to build one or more hotels on the Cotai Strip, the Sands' promised Macau version of Vegas' boulevard of behemoth casino resort showplaces. Each hotel would involve an investment of more than US$200 million (HK$1.56 billion) and initially feature 1,500 rooms, a Las Vegas Sands-run casino and meeting facilities. The hotel groups are now lining up investors and their projects as they start to develop building plans and negotiate land leases and premium payments with the government. When completed, the Strip would feature 20-25 hotels with 60,000 rooms. Las Vegas Sands intends to simultaneously open the entire first phase of eight hotels with 12,000-plus rooms in 2006, according to an executive briefed on the plan. Zach Coleman, The (China) Standard, 5-17-04

The market is thought to be huge; can anyone remember the discussions about Atlantic City prior to the opening of the first casinos? The market within a couple hundred miles was said to be 100 million people. Those of us operating in Nevada drooled and worked on plans to open a New Jersey casino. Well, the numbers from Macau are slightly larger--one billion people a quick trip away. There are already predictions that Macau will be in second place in the world for gaming revenue, with first place just a couple of new casinos away. Adelson also sees a way to bring some of those customers back home to Vegas; that is the kind of synergy that makes a Harvard professor drool; makes a person wonder when Harrah's will be knocking at the Chinese door?

Las Vegas Sands President Bill Weidner said Macau is the most opportune developing gaming environment his company has ever seen. Macau's casinos raked in an estimated $3.6 billion last year, and could bring in nearly $5 billion this year, he said. That would surpass the revenue from Atlantic City's casinos and rival those from Las Vegas' casinos. More than 1 billion people live within an easy plane flight of Macau, he said, and the World Travel Organization estimates that China will grant 100 million worldwide travel visas in 2020, up from 10 million in 2002. Casino City, 5-19-04

Player demand for casino action at Sheldon Adelson's Sands Macau has kept the tables and slots packed with about 45,000 players on weekends and 35,000 players weekdays …while the Sands Macau is doing well compared to some of its counterparts in the United States…initial results reported by Deutsche Bank said the Sands Macau did $1.2 million in its first nine hours, or $139,000 an hour By comparison, Deutsche Bank analyst Marc Falcone said, the new Borgata in Atlantic City did $143 million in casino revenues in the first quarter of 2004, or $1.6 million a day and $65,500 an hour. Rod Smith, Gaming Wire, Las Vegas Review-Journal, 6-2-02

The general assembly did pass the "Wynn Credit Bill" as Steve requested. Not a star maybe, but able to get favorable legislation and regulation in Nevada and Macau when he puts his mind to it. One would expect shovels in the ground soon, or possibly he will wait until the doors are open in Vegas. A person only has so much time and energy after all.

The Macau General Assembly passed credit legislation on Monday that will allow casino promoters to extend credit in the form of gambling chips to high-rollers, Wall Street analysts said today. The law, effective July 1, is expected to spur Steve Wynn's plans to build a resort in Macau as well as another deal from MGM MIRAGE, analysts said. MGM MIRAGE wasn't granted a development license from the Macau government but there has been in talks with the daughter of license holder Stanley Ho to build a casino there, they said. Las Vegas Sun, 6-1-04

There is some risk to the Chinese wonderland. The is, of course, organized crime; gangs have long controlled "credit" in Macau, with enforcement techniques that would fit into the script of the Sopranos. And, then, this is China. Just last year the government executed several people (one a government official) for gambling; the Chinese government reserves the right to change its mind about gambling, ownership of casinos or anything else it chooses. The reasons for the change are often confusing for westerners accustomed to a more open form of legislation and regulation. Scandinavian software designers did not seem to pay attention to the fine points of Chinese history and will pay a price for it; slot game designers would do well to pay attention to the Scandinavian problems; and casino operators to the quickness and severity of the punishments.

China has banned a Swedish-made computer game accused of "distorting history and damaging China's sovereignty", by showing Manchuria, Tibet and Xinjiang as independent nations, state press said. The computer game, "Hearts of Iron", made by the Stockholm-based games developer Paradox Entertainment, also showed Taiwan as a part of Japan, Xinhua news agency said, citing a censorship committee under the Ministry of Culture. "All these severely distort historical facts and violate China's gaming and Internet service regulations", the ministry said. "The game should be immediately prohibited." …Internet bars that provide downloads of the game or fail to stop surfers who download, install or play the game, will be fined or even ordered to stop business, it said. Earlier this year gaming regulators ordered all copies of a Norwegian-made computer game to be pulled off store shelves after alleging it "smeared" China's national image. …With the popularity of the Internet, computer games have become a booming industry in China. Yahoo! News Singapore, 5-29-04

Since the early go-go days of the Strip, major casinos have outspent each other trying to build the "best casino", an animal probably very closely related to the best mousetrap. Over the years there have been some interesting stories, such as the building boom that followed the Mirage; or the spending binge brought on by Belagio. Caesars has been playing catch-up since the opening of the Mirage. Changes in management, name and strategic plans have changed over the years, and the once proud leader of the Strip has struggled to stay in the game. The latest shift back to Caesars as the corporate name and to the brand that once was Caesars has brought the focus back to the starship of the fleet, Caesars Palace. New rooms and new amenities, including an exotic car dealership are the latest bids to bring back the glory. In Connecticut, Foxwoods got caught in a similar trap. The market leader, at first without any competition, Foxwoods seemed to believe that market dominance was god-given and required no effort. Mohegan Sun, proved them wrong and with expansion, improvement and innovation took over first place. Now Foxwoods is fighting back. As the man said, this business is "more than a loose slot machine and a fast cocktail server."

Caesars Palace plans to open an exotic-car dealership in October, a marketing ploy industry experts say should help polish the resort's once-tarnished image…The new dealership…will show off more than 50 rare automobiles, including such marquee lines as Ferrari, Lamborghini and Bentley. …Medick said the association between Caesars Palace and the high-end luxury automobile market helps the holding company refurbish the image of the resort as a cool and hip place to visit, a tactic that has been at the core of its renovation and marketing plans. Rod Smith, Gaming Wire, Las Vegas Sun,
5-28-04

As a $300 million makeover takes shape at Foxwoods Resort Casino, it is gambling's friendly new face, not that old Rat Pack, on display. The future is corporate golf, with a Coach handbag and a spa treatment-not merely a memorable hangover and a plastic cup of quarters. It is family entertainment, brand-name restaurants and shopping to go along with the slot machines…"It is," explained Robert D. Sheldon, Foxwoods' chief operating officer, "more than a loose slot machine and a fast cocktail server." …families looking for a break from the old Saturday-at-the-mall routine can also enter the cafe without having to navigate the new gambling floor's maze of slot machines and gaming tables. "If we are going to grow and be competitive with our neighbors, you've got to have this", Sheldon said. "We want to give people different opportunities to spend their money." Rick Green, Hartford Courant, 5-28-04

When a team or individual wins the "ultimate" championship, everyone with a claim, claims "kinship." So, for example, when Andre wins in France or England, the city of Las Vegas and its citizens lay claim to a portion of the glory; as the citizens of Chicago or North Carolina claimed Michael Jordan, or in a recent story, Stonington, Connecticut calls Fossilman Raymer a native (as did the Dakotas). The Connecticut town is not the only claimant to the latest winner of the World Series of Poker played at Binion's in Vegas over the Memorial Day Weekend. An online poker site claims first bragging rights. Not only did Raymer qualify for the tournament playing online at "Poker Star," so did the runner up and last year's winner, Chris Moneymaker. Players and Online sites alike had best be careful when taking credit as the federal government is looking for ways to place some responsibility alongside the glory of being associated with online gaming. The site may be safely outside of federal jurisdiction, but its advertisers and players are not; worse if the government's stance is carried to it's logical conclusion, the publications that list the site's web address might also be held culpable.

"Fossilman" Raymer, a patent attorney from Stonington [Connecticut], won the World Series of Poker tournament Friday, winning a head-to-head showdown on the final hand worth $5 million. Raymer, 39, battled with David Anthony Williams, a college student from Dallas, for the top prize. Both had full houses on the final hand, but Raymer had eights over twos, while Williams had fours over twos. Williams earned $3.5 million for his second-place finish. Adam Goldman, Associated Press, Hartford Courant, 5-30-04

PokerStars.com, the world's largest tournament poker destination, earned a new moniker on Friday night. Now, PokerStars is "the place where poker players become World Champions." Greg Raymer, the newest World Champion of Poker, qualified for the event on PokerStars. In 2003, PokerStars player Chris Moneymaker became the first online qualifier to win the title of World Champion of Poker. …"There is absolutely no question that PokerStars players dominated the 2004 World Series of Poker", commented Lee Jones, PokerStars Poker Room Manager. "Each year we have provided qualifying tournaments, one of our players has become the World Champion of Poker. This year the runner-up, David Williams, was also a PokerStars qualifier." PRNewswire, Reno Gazette-Journal, 6-1-04

Federal law enforcement officials routinely seize money they suspect is connected to activities like money laundering, terrorism or drug smuggling. But in early April, United States marshals seized $3.2 million from Discovery Communications, the television and media company, in an aggressive effort to crack down on a new target, Internet gambling. The money initially belonged to Tropical Paradise, a Costa Rica-based Internet casino operation, which in October paid Discovery for television spots to advertise an online poker room, ParadisePoker.com. According to court documents, the government seized the money and told Discovery, which is based in Silver Spring, Md., that it could be party to an illegal activity by broadcasting such advertisements. Federal prosecutors contend that online gambling sites are illegal, but the offshore casinos fall outside their jurisdiction. So for nearly a year, the government has been trying to curb the sites' activities by investigating and pressuring American companies that provide services to offshore gambling sites on the theory that they are "aiding and abetting" the operations. Until now, the effort has largely involved seeking information from American companies, including major broadcasters, Web portals and industry consultants. The seizure of money significantly escalates the government's attack. New York Times, Wilmington Star,
6-1-04

The economy seems fine but gas prices are not. The gaming industry is really popular, but not always on Wall Street. The Donald is a star, but only on television. Macau is a money making machine, but beware of the risks. Caesars is trying to get back the glory that was Rome, but is driving a Lamborghini the fastest way to get there? Would you want your best players spending a million dollars on the way to the tables or after a big win on a flashy car to impress his girl friend? And playing poker online may lead to the winner's circle or it may lead to a prison yard, and that is my short version of May 2004.