Popular Fallacies That Aren't - Part 2

Some notions gamblers have about gambling are both common and completely misguided.

These ideas often have a basis in truth, however, though the connection between the idea and the reality is often tenuous.

Lets look at idea of quitting while ahead.

The reasoning is: You are certain to be ahead at some point during a session. Quitting whenever you are ahead therefore guarantees you will never lose.

The fallacy is: You can actually never be ahead and still lose. It is unlikely in any one session, but over a number of sessions it will happen eventually. On this one losing session you will lose back all your winnings.

Exceptions: At blackjack quitting while ahead is not such a bad thing, because a series of wins is more likely to be a result of being dealt good cards (aces and tens) than not. This means that bad cards, on average, dominate the remaining pack and you have more of a disadvantage than normal. However, this effect is not strong enough to be a winning strategy by itself and will not forestall that eventual killer losing session.