Will Hot Numbers Stay Hot?

9 October 2012

By Jerry Stickman

When a number is “hot” it will continue to be hot?

The purveyors of systems using this premise have silly but catchy sayings such as “see a horn, bet a horn.” The horn bet includes the craps bet numbers (2, 3, and 12) and the “yo” (11). An interesting side note is why the 11 is called a “yo.” You will never hear the stickman at a craps table call the 11 simply eleven – it is always called “yo-eleven.” The reason for this – eleven sounds very close to seven and nobody wants to mistake an 11 for a 7. By saying yo before saying eleven, no one will mistake it for the dreaded 7.

Some systems look for two appearances of a number within 2-4 rolls. When this happens, the systems says to bet that number for a number of rolls. If it doesn’t hit in that number of rolls, take the bet down and look for the next number that will repeat.

Can this work? Do numbers repeat themselves often enough to get an edge at the game?
Consider the following series of numbers:

1415926535 8979323846 2643383279 5028841971 6939937510 5820974944 5923078164 0628620899 8628034825 3421170679 8214808651 3282306647 0938446095 5058223172 5359408128 4811174502 8410270193 8521105559 6446229489 5493038196 4428810975 6659334461 2847564823 3786783165 2712019091 4564856692 3460348610 4543266482 1339360726 0249141273 7245870066 0631558817 4881520920 9628292540 9171536436 7892590360 0113305305 4882046652 1384146951 9415116094 3305727036 5759591953 0921861173 8193261179 3105118548 0744623799 6274956735 1885752724 8912279381 8301194912 9833673362 4406566430 8602139494 6395224737 1907021798 6094370277 0539217176 2931767523 8467481846 7669405132 0005681271 4526356082 7785771342 7577896091 7363717872 1468440901 2249534301 4654958537 1050792279 6892589235 4201995611 2129021960 8640344181 5981362977 4771309960 5187072113 4999999837 2978049951 0597317328 1609631859 5024459455 3469083026 4252230825 3344685035 2619311881 7101000313 7838752886 5875332083 8142061717 7669147303 5982534904 2875546873 1159562863 8823537875 9375195778 1857780532 1712268066 1300192787 6611195909 2164201989

This series above is the first 1,000 digits of the fractional part of Pi (p) which is a random series of numbers. Notice the six 9’s in the fifth column, ninth row down. System sellers would use this as proof their system works. There are several other examples in this series that will allow the gambler to win money. However, there are also several instances where the gambler will lose.

I have not done exhaustive analysis of the wins and loses that occur in this series. I am certain that a winning system could be developed using this set of 100 numbers or even the 7,500 actual craps rolls that are published in a book by Thomas Midgley. In fact, I have seen more than one system that uses the 7,500 numbers as proof the system works.

The truth is the next set of 7,500 numbers could very well be a disaster for the system user. In order to mathematically prove any system works (and mathematical proof is the only accurate measure of a system's worth), multiple millions of rolls are required. It is only after this many rolls that all the peaks and valleys of variance will have been traversed and the results reflect the true odds.

I have run simulations on scores of betting systems. First I calculated the odds mathematically and then I ran the simulations. In absolutely every case, the results of the simulations were virtually identical to the mathematical calculation.

In a random game of craps it is impossible to win at craps in the long run by using a betting system that is based on numbers repeating. As shown in a previous article, in a random game of craps it is impossible to win in the long run using a betting system that is based on a number being due to appear.

That fact won’t stop the scammers, hucksters and well-meaning but uninformed system developers from continuing to generate worthless system after worthless system to sell to the naïve public. Don’t be one of the latter. Trust the math.

May all your wins be swift and large and all your losses slow and tiny.

Jerry “Stickman” is an expert in craps, blackjack and video poker and advantage slot machine play. You can contact Jerry “Stickman” at stickmanGTC@aol.com