When Things Go Bad

25 November 2023

By Jerry Stickman

From Sarah:

Hey Stickman!

Thank you for your expertise about video poker and your articles, they have really helped improve my game! I have a question for you, I haven’t gotten 4 of kind in a long time (and I mean a LONG time!). I am tempted to switch games to one that favors 4 of a kind – what do you think? Thank you again for your help!

Sarah

Hi Sarah,

It is gratifying to know that my articles have been of some help in improving your video poker game.

Video poker – in fact, virtually all gambling – is made up of streaks. We all enjoy the winning streaks, but the losing streaks, not so much.

It is tempting to take some sort of action when things are not going your way in the casino. One good thing about video poker is we know the long-term frequency of hitting the different winning hands. In jacks or better a four-of-a-kind appears once every approximately 430 hands. Of course, this is an average number based on hundreds of thousands of hands played.

Be cautioned. Here are a couple of things to think about before taking any (perhaps) rash steps.

• You say it has been a LONG time. Just how long is a LONG time – 1,000 hands, 2,000 hands, 5,000 hands? If you are at the lower end, you are well withing the normal swings of random play. If you are at the high end, it has been a long time. If it has been 10,000 hands, then yes, it has been a LONG time.

• Have you just come off a streak of several four-of-a-kinds? Were you way ahead going into this drought?

If you are at the high end of the range, and it wasn’t preceded by a flurry of quads, it is possible you may do better switching from, say, jacks or better to double bonus or double-double bonus poker. Hitting a four-of-a-kind in those games could really boost your bankroll.

Switching games has its own problems.

• It is rare that double bonus or double-bonus have returns comparable to the jacks or better game currently being played.

• The longer you go without hitting a quad on the new game, the more quickly you are losing your bankroll. To pay for the increased winnings for quads, the new games pay only 1-for-1 for two pairs, not the 2-for-1 paid in jacks or better.

• The proper playing strategy for each of the go-to games is different than each other game. Are you able to play the proper strategy for the go-to game?

• There is no guarantee that you will hit a four-of-a-kind within the next 5,000 or even 10,000 hands. It may be likely, but random means unpredictable.

Be aware that you are playing with fire if you switch games. Be cautious, Be very cautious.

If the current situation is affecting your play, it may be better to take a break from play and return when you are more relaxed.

If your play is not being affected by the dearth of quads, continuing the current game may be best.

Ultimately, it is your money and your frustration. What you decide to do is up to you. Just be aware of the dangers before you change course.

As always, may all your wins be swift and large, and your losses be slow and small.


Jerry “Stickman” is an expert in craps, blackjack and video poker and advantage slot machine play. He is a regular contributor to top gaming magazines. He authored the video poker section of “Everything Casino Poker: Get the Edge at Video Poker, Texas Hold'em, Omaha Hi-Lo, and Pai Gow Poker!” You can contact Jerry “Stickman” at stickmanjerryg@gmail.com