The 6/8 progression

12 January 2019

By Jerry Stickman

Jerry -

I’ve been playing a slow negative progression only playing the 6 and 8 in craps and seem to be doing quite well with it.

Basically, I am seeking a constant profit with each winning roll of the dice. My theory works like this:

Level 1: 24 on 6 and 8, if lose move up to 60 each, if lose again move up to 180. On any win, move immediately back down to 24 until it loses again.

Level 2: 48 on 6 and 8, if lose move up to 120 each, if lose again, move up to 360.

Level 3: 144 on 6 and 8, if lose move up to 360 each, if lose again, move up to 1,080.

I am using higher numbers here, but basically, I am playing against the probability of the roll of 7 coming out 8-9 times before many 6 or 8 rolls arrive.

I look forward to your thoughts.

Best,

Jim


Hi Jim,

Concerning your betting system, I like the fact that you bet on only the 6 and 8 as these have the lowest house edge of any place bet. I am also happy for you that you have been doing well with this betting system. When using a negative progression system, players bet more when they lose, hoping to recover the small initial bet.

Your system is like that. Negative progressions seem to work well - for a while. It is when you either hit the end of your progression or when you hit the table limit that disaster strikes. The total loss at this point is monstrous. It is for this reason that casinos love progressions. That is also the very reason they have bet limits.

If there were no limits (possible) and the player had unlimited funds (not possible), the casino would lose every negative progression. However, that is not the case. The casino will get their 1.52% of the total amount bet on the 6 and 8 — the more you bet in total the more you will lose. You may win consistently for dozens or even hundreds of betting sequences, but when you lose a sequence you lose a bunch.

Let’s look at some numbers using your betting system. I am assuming that you go up a level after losing the increased bet at the previous level.

Level 1:

Bet Amount Total Amount Lost If Win, Win Amount
$24 $24 $28


I would recommend that rather than doing a progression (any progression), that you instead bet a single pass line bet with whatever odds you can afford. There is only a 1.41% edge on the base portion of the bet and adding odds can bring the total house edge on your entire bet (base and odds) to well under 1%.

If you really want more action, add a come bet (or two at the most). The less money you have at risk, the less you will lose.

Trust me when I say, there is no betting system that can beat the game of craps. Only a controlled throw can do that — and that is extremely hard to develop and maintain.

May all your wins be swift and large and all your losses slow and small.

Jerry “Stickman”

Jerry “Stickman” is an expert in craps, blackjack, video poker and advantage slot machine play. He is a regular contributor to top gaming magazines. He authored the video poker section of "Everything Casino Poker: Get the Edge at Video Poker, Texas Hold'em, Omaha Hi-Lo, and Pai Gow Poker!" You can contact Jerry “Stickman” at stickmanjerry@aol.com.