Sequential Betting Systems

16 October 2012

By Jerry Stickman

Can a betting system produce an edge over the house?

In previous articles we’ve looked at systems that focus on a number being due to appear and systems that are based on numbers repeating. Neither of these types of betting systems are able to overcome the house edge in the long run.

Let’s look at another tenet of some of the systems being sold.

There are patterns of numbers that repeat.

These betting systems tend to be a little more complex. The general idea is after a number appears (or a sequence of numbers appear), then a different number will appear. For example, if a 9 should roll, then a 5 will soon appear. Another example: if a 5 is followed by an 8 the 6 will appear very soon.

Some betting systems get very complex, first looking for one of three different numbers (e.g. 5, 6, or 8) then a different number depending on what the first number e.g. 4 if the 5 showed, 9 if the 6 showed, or 5 if the 8 showed), and then, if a different number (8, 3, or 2) has not rolled in the last 4 rolls, bet a specific number (12, 3, or 9).

Still others wait for two non-box numbers followed by a box number (a box number is a 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or, 10). When this happens bet the complement of the box number that rolled (the complement of a number is the remainder after subtracting the original number from 14 – 6 and 8, 5 and 9, and 4 and 10 are complement pairs).

Some systems go even farther requiring the gambler to carry a little notebook with the patterns documented where they write down the rolls and then check the pattern documentation to see what to bet – unless of course they "feel" some number is going to hit.

While there are numerous books written about the power of the mind to sense something that is about to happen or perhaps even to cause something to happen, I strongly submit, when it comes to a random game of craps – if you can’t prove it by the math, it isn’t so.

I have taken the time to run simulations on several different betting systems that use number patterns. The results were exactly as I suspected – the house edge is exactly what the math says.

Of course it is not possible to simulate hunches, so those systems that include this variable could not be simulated. Do the people that use them feel they work? Of course they do or they would not use them. Do they work? Maybe for a while – a couple of sessions, a week, a month, even a year, two years, or more. But ultimately, as is always the case with a random phenomenon, things will even out. All those wins experienced early on will be wiped out by later losses – and the losses will outweigh the wins at an amount equaling the house edge.

Let’s summarize. Betting systems that are based on numbers that are due don’t work. Betting systems based on numbers repeating don’t work. Betting systems based on number patterns don’t work. In fact, no betting system will alter the house edge in a random craps game. You may outrun the bullet for a while, but ultimately it will catch up with you.

System sellers know how to say things that appear to be logical in order to prove their systems work, but if the math doesn’t prove they work – they do not work. Don’t waste your time or money on a betting system. If you truly want to get an edge at the game of craps, you must learn a controlled throw. That is the only way to turn the tables on the casinos.

May all your wins be swift and large and all your losses slow and tiny.

Jerry “Stickman” is an expert in craps, blackjack and video poker and advantage slot machine play. You can contact Jerry “Stickman” at stickmanGTC@aol.com