Regression betting

29 April 2017

By Jerry Stickman

There are many betting systems being touted. They cover all aspects of betting. They come from all areas of thought. Some of them sound really (and I mean really) good. But are they? Can any betting method turn you from a loser to a winner? Can any betting method even reduce your losses?

These are all very good questions. Let’s look at one betting method.

It is called regression betting. The method can be used at most table games, but is primarily focused on the game of craps. There is more than one way that it works. One way is something like this.

Put out a large spread of money on some or all of the point numbers (4, 5, 6, 8, 9 and 10). For example, if you are at a $12 table and you normally bet $12 on the 6 and 8 and $10 on the 4 and 10, according to this betting method you would place the 6 and 8 for $120 and buy the 4 and 10 for $100. You now have $440 at risk instead of the $44 at risk with your usual betting routine.

Different methods differ as to how long to leave the bets before calling them off or taking them down. Some say leave the bets up and working for six throws. Some say a bit fewer and some say a bit more. But the main point for all of these methods is once any one of the numbers hits, you take your winnings and reduce your bets to table minimum.

In the example above, if the 6 hits, you collect the $140 winnings and reduce the 6 and 8 to $12 and the 4 and 10 to $10. After reducing your bets you have only $44 at risk and you have collected $140. You have a profit of $96.

Another regression betting technique is to place one or more numbers, for example the 6 for $12. With each hit you increase the amount bet on that number by $12. After the number wins three times (or some other number of wins) reduce the bet on that number to the table minimum – in this case, $12.

Here is an example of this. Place $12 on the 6. You now have $12 at risk. When the 6 hits you are paid $14. Put $2 in your rack and use the remaining $12 to increase the bet on the 6 to $24. You now have $24 at risk on the 6 with $2 in your rack. You are down by $10 (the initial $12 bet minus the $2 from your first hit).

When the 6 hits again take $16 of the $28 win and put it in your rack. Use the remaining $12 to increase the bet to $36. You now have $36 at risk on the 6 with $18 in the rack for a net profit of $6 ($18 in the rack minus your initial $12 bet). When the 6 hits a third time, you take the entire $42 win and put it in your rack. You now have $60 in the rack. You also reduce your $36 bet to $12 which puts another $24 in your rack for a net profit of $72 ($60 plus $24 equals $84 in your rack minus your original $12). The process then starts all over.

Both of these techniques are based on the belief that by getting some money in your rack and then reducing your bet you are guaranteed a win.

That is actually true.

IF you can get some money in your rack and reduce your bets in either of the two scenarios mentioned, you WILL BE guaranteed a win. The only problem is there is no guarantee you will win anything before you lose your entire spread to a 7.

Math is a funny thing, even though players can convince themselves that they can beat the math by clever betting, the math always wins. For every $12 bet on a 6 or 8, there is a loss of just a shade over 18 cents (1.52% of $12). With $24 bet on the 6 or 8 the loss doubles to just over 36 cents. When the bet hits $36, the loss becomes 55 cents.

This will obviously not happen with each and every bet. The house will not pay you in fractions of a cent, but over time the loss from placing the 6 or 8 will gradually zero in on 1.52 percent of the total money bet on the number.

While it may sound good to initially bet big and then reduce your bet once you get a hit, you will not make money in the long run. The method may work many times, but eventually you will lose your entire initial stake and it will wipe out all your small profits. The same is true with the method that increases then reduces your bets. Sometimes (actually more often than not) you will lose your initial $12. You will also lose when you have $24 and $36 bet. The overall results of either of these methods will be a loss based on the math of the bets that are made.

No betting method will ever win money for you in the long run. No betting method will in the long run reduce your losses lower than the math says. Actually, the last statement is not entirely true. The only betting method that will reduce the amount of your loss is to reduce the amount that you bet. The only way to win at the game of craps is by learning how to throw the dice so you either reduce the appearance of the 7 or increase the frequency of the appearance of some other numbers.

May all your wins be swift and large and all your losses slow and small.


Jerry “Stickman” is an expert in craps, blackjack and video poker and advantage slot machine play. He wrote the video poker section of "Everything Casino Poker." You can contact Jerry “Stickman” at stickmanjerry@aol.com