Pressing bets at craps

25 November 2017

By Jerry Stickman

Stickman:

I am trying very hard to become a better player in the casino. I have read some of your articles and several of Frank Scoblete’s books and articles. I only play the better games in blackjack. I only make better bets at craps, and I only play the better video poker games.

Sometimes I do OK, but other times I still lose big. I will lose hand after hand in blackjack. I lose pass line bet after pass line bet in craps. When I switch to don’t pass bets, I still lose bet after bet.

I know the math of the game says things have to even out at some point in time, so after I have lost many bets in a row, I sometimes bet more in order to recover the money I have lost. But I simply lose more most of the time.

If I have lost many bets in a row, I am due to win, but it seldom happens.

You seem to know what you are talking about. What am I doing wrong?

Bruce N

Dear Bruce,

I commend your efforts to improve you casino play. Reading articles and books by Frank and his associates is a very good start. They really do know what they are talking about and make sure that the math backs up what they say. Playing only the best games and bets is the way to go, but there is more to it than that.

In the long run, decisions will tend to even out. The long run, however, is a very, very long time.

If you are flipping a coin there is a 50% probability that it will come up heads on the first toss.

If it has come up heads the last 10 times, what is the probability of heads coming up on the next flip of the coin?

Answer: 50% - no change. The coin has no memory.

Similarly, your chances of winning a particular bet the next time, does not change simply because you lost it several times in the past. The one exception to that rule is a blackjack game that does not use a continuous shuffler. As cards are dealt, they are no longer in play. The cards that remain in the shoe will tend to favor the player when there are more 10 or face cards left and favor the casino when there are more low cards left.

Even if you are a card counter, it may take a very long time before you will even out. Random games can take hundreds of thousands of bets before the edge approaches what the math dictates.

What you appear to be doing, Bruce, is chasing your losses. This is very dangerous. Besides playing the best games and bets, you need to have good discipline. The discipline to set up session bankrolls beforehand and the discipline to limit your play based on those session bankrolls.

Remember, the casino has the edge on virtually every game they offer.

They would not be in business if they did not. The more you bet the more you will lose – unless you properly count cards, control the dice or play only those slots that exhibit an advantage.
You are doing some of the right things. Now develop the discipline to forgo chasing losses. Your bankroll will notice the difference.

Best of luck in your future casino activities.
Jerry “Stickman”


Jerry “Stickman” is an expert in craps, blackjack and video poker and advantage slot machine play. He authored the video poker section of Everything Casino Poker: Get the Edge at Video Poker, Texas Hold'em, Omaha Hi-Lo, and Pai Gow Poker! You can contact Jerry “Stickman” at stickmanjerry@aol.com.