My Win Streak Is Due

10 August 2024

By Jerry Stickman

My Winning Streak Is Due

QUESTION:

I understand that over time (in the long run) random events such as casino games will approach the mathematically calculated percentage. I have been playing video poker for several months. I keep track of the games I play and amount won or lost.

So far, I have lost far more than what the math dictates. I normally play 8/5 bonus poker that shows a return of 99.17 percent. According to my figures, my return so far is less than 94 percent. If the return of this game is 99.17 percent, does this mean I should expect a winning streak in the near future?

ANSWER:

Your question is a very good one. There is a great deal of confusion when it comes to understanding the behavior of random events. This confusion is not limited to players. Many betting system sellers define and promote their wares based on a perhaps naïve or perhaps purposely misleading application of the laws of random events.

The answer to your question is no, you should not expect a winning streak in the near future.

I suspect, you want a little more of an explanation along with the answer.

What is the definition of “random?” According to merriam-webster.com, random is lacking a definite plan, purpose, or pattern. There is no definite pattern. By definition, random events cannot be predicted.

As an example, the odds against getting a royal flush in video poker is generally in the 40,000-to-1 range. Does that mean that once you get a royal flush you can forget about it for another 40,000 or so hands?

It does not. It is entirely possible that the next hand will also be a royal flush.

Does it mean that you can expect another royal flush after playing 40,000 hands? It does not. Does it mean you can expect one after playing 80,000 hands without getting one? 100,000 hands? 150,000 hands? 200,000 hands?

It does not. While I have never gotten back-to-back royal flushes, I have gotten two of them in three hands. I have also gone 193,000 plus hands without getting a single royal flush.

What does that say about being due to start winning at a higher rate? All it says is that you are not due. You are never due. It cannot be predicted.

You will have winning streaks. You will have losing streaks. You will have break-even streaks. You never know when one of these will start. You never know when one of these will end.

Ask all the buyers of casino betting systems how well they worked.

To be fair, many betting systems work for a while. The system will provide many small wins quite regularly. Unfortunately, every so often (nobody can predict when), the betting system will force a huge loss that more than offsets all the little wins.

The same is true for a game’s actual return versus its mathematical return. The actual return will vary up and down. Your actual return is over five percent less than the mathematical return.

Over the next few thousand hands, your actual average return could actually go down. There is no guarantee when the trend will change.

Mathematical returns are based on an infinite number of events. Actual returns are based on the laws of randomness. After millions of hands it is likely the actual return will approach the mathematical result – likely, not guaranteed.

Because of this, a player is never “due.” The good pundits state that actual returns tend to approach the mathematical return over time – millions and millions of hands worth. They never say that you are due!

As always, may all your wins be swift and large, and your losses be slow and small.

Jerry “Stickman”

Jerry “Stickman” is an expert in craps, blackjack and video poker and advantage slot machine play. He is a regular contributor to top gaming magazines and 888casino.com. He authored the video poker section of "Everything Casino Poker: Get the Edge at Video Poker, Texas Hold'em, Omaha Hi-Lo, and Pai Gow Poker!" You can contact Jerry “Stickman” at stickmanjerryg@gmail.com