Luck and Skill at Video Poker

9 September 2023

By Jerry Stickman

Very few games on a casino’s floor allow skill from the player to alter the outcome. Most of them are totally random games. There is no way for anyone to predict what will happen next. The casino edge will be exacted on every dollar of play – on average and in the long run.

Exceptions to this rule are the games of blackjack, craps, and video poker.

Knowledgeable blackjack players can observe when they have an edge and bet more during those times. They can bet the minimum when they do not have an edge.

Note: This is only possible if the game is not dealt from a continuous shuffler.

Skilled craps players have also shown they can influence the dice enough to tilt the edge toward the player.

Skilled video poker players can also affect the results of play by employing a playing strategy that maximizes the average return of every hand.

Luck is also involved in video poker play. The cards that are dealt for the original hand as well as the replacement cards for those discarded are random. Random means luck, not skill, is involved.

If video poker players randomly discarded, the game would be completely based on luck. This is what the initial designers of video poker were expecting. In fact, the early developers did not even know how much the house edge was – or if there even was a house edge. They employed a group of players to play thousands and thousands of hands and documented the results. These results were then given to the casinos as the house edge for the video poker games.

Things have changed.

Now mathematical edges can be calculated for any game and pay-table combination. Playing strategies based on the math can be developed. These strategies allow players to get the largest return for any dealt hand – on average and over time. Playing this strategy perfectly is the skill part of the game.

Does this mean that video poker players will win or lose in a smooth line based on the return of the game?

Of course not. The replacement cards are random. Sometimes they will produce a small winning hand. Sometimes they will produce a large winning hand. Most often they will produce a losing hand.

The players bankrolls will fluctuate.

After a large amount of play, however, the result will become very close to the mathematically calculated return.

Skilled video poker players cannot eliminate luck, but they can help steer it towards the mathematical average with proper play.

As always, may all your wins be swift and large, and your losses be slow and small.

Jerry “Stickman”


Jerry “Stickman” is an expert in craps, blackjack and video poker and advantage slot machine play. He is a regular contributor to top gaming magazines. He authored the video poker section of “Everything Casino Poker: Get the Edge at Video Poker, Texas Hold'em, Omaha Hi-Lo, and Pai Gow Poker!” You can contact Jerry “Stickman” at stickmanjerryg@gmail.com