Is Video Poker Unfair?

6 July 2024

By Jerry Stickman

From Robin in Ohio

Hi Jerry,

I play quite a bit of video poker. It is my favorite casino game. I do not like table games as I don’t always know the rules of etiquette and everyone else seems to judge your play. Video poker is more low-key and relaxing. It also requires some thinking unlike slots which seem to me to be mindless games.

My question to you is this. Are video poker games really fair? I will tell you why I ask. Actually, there are several reasons.

Many times I will get dealt four cards of a flush. Very seldom will the fifth card be drawn to complete the hand. I believe there is about a 20 percent chance of completing this hand (9 cards – 13 minus the four dealt – out 0f 47 cards remaining in the deck).

The same is true for four of a straight flush – although the odds of this happening are considerably lower: 1 in 47 for an inside straight flush and 1 in 23-and-a-half for an open straight flush.

I also seem to go for a long time between full houses which should occur roughly once every 85 to 90 hands.

I really don’t think I am getting anywhere near that level of winning hands.

Robin

Hi Robin,

You are not alone in your thoughts. The concerns you mention are quite common. Whether it is flushes, four-of-a-kinds, royal flushes, full houses, or even winning hands when holding a low pair, many video poker players feel the games are fixed for the casino.

And they are.

But not the way you are suggesting. They are fixed for the casino by paying less than true odds for the winning hands. That is where the casinos make their profits from video poker.

Several years ago, a friend of mine suggested exactly what you are suggesting. I decided to do some heavy research on the subject. For the next few years, I kept track of several different pieces information. They included:

• Number of dealt four of a flush, and number of times the flush filled.
• Number of dealt four of a straight flush, open or inside, and number of times it filled.
• Number of dealt four of a royal flush, and number of times it filled.
• Number of royal flushes.
• Number of straight flushes.
• Number of four-of-a-kind, the rank, and number of that rank that were dealt.
• Number of full houses.

It was tedious to gather all these statistics, but not as bad as one might think. I was able to develop a shortcut way of noting the various occurrences and became quite adept at logging them.

As part of my general playing information for tax purposes, I also keep track of the following for each playing session:

• Casino
• Type of game (e.g. 9/6 jacks or better)
• Machine number
• Date
• Start and end time
• Money fed into the game
• Money cashed out
• Number of hands played

All this information was fed into a spreadsheet and served as support for income tax as well as giving me the opportunity to calculate how often these select hands occurred.

For several years I averaged more than one trip to Las Vegas a month, spending about a week each trip with an average of around 50,000 hands per year.

Some of the results were surprising. Yearly occurrence averages for some of the documented hands varied wildly from year to year. When years were averaged together, however, the average occurrence rates were very close to the mathematical calculations.

Most players remember the times when there is a dearth of winners. They tend to forget, however, the times those same hands happen more frequently than the average. There were two years in a row where I had no royal flushes – over 100,000 hands and not one royal flush. The streak went to almost 125,000 hands before the drought was finally broken. Other years produced well more than what was “due” me.

In the long run, everything was very close to what the math said it should be.

Casinos get their profits by short-paying winning hands in video poker. They don’t need to cheat to make money.

As always, may all your wins be swift and large, and your losses be slow and small.

Jerry “Stickman”

Jerry “Stickman” is an expert in craps, blackjack and video poker and advantage slot machine play. He is a regular contributor to top gaming magazines and 888casino.com. He authored the video poker section of “Everything Casino Poker: Get the Edge at Video Poker, Texas Hold'em, Omaha Hi-Lo, and Pai Gow Poker!” You can contact Jerry “Stickman” at stickmanjerryg@gmail.com